We will break a new record in exports this year with 265 billion dollars

The Turkish Exporters Assembly (TIM) has completed the fifth study in the 'export report' series, which has now become a tradition. In the study prepared under the title 'Export 2023 Report', Turkey's exports in 2023 were projected as 264.7 billion dollars.

The report, which was published only in digital format this year with the foreword of Mustafa Gültepe, President of TIM, with an environmentalist perspective, included developments and expectations affecting both global trade and Turkey's exports.

Mustafa Gültepe stated that in the export report, which is prepared regularly every year, they transform the data obtained from reliable sources into information and support them with analyses. Emphasising that they see the report as a comprehensive handbook for exporters, Gültepe continued as follows:

ACCORDING TO ECONOMETRIC MODELLING, EXPORTS WILL INCREASE BY 4.13 PERCENT

"In this year's report, we focused on 'expectations of a slowdown in global growth and its impact on exports'. We focused on the possible repercussions of the slowdown in global growth on our exports, because Turkey's exports are directly related to the growth in global economies. Global demand plays a decisive role in terms of our exports. We prepared an export forecast using econometric modelling methods. In light of the current findings, it is seen that the loss of momentum in the global income level leads to a slowdown in the rate of increase in our exports. According to econometric findings, we expect our exports to increase by 4.13 per cent to USD 264.7 billion this year. In other words, this year, when we are excited about the 100th anniversary of the foundation of our Republic, we will break a new record with approximately 265 billion dollars. We assess that the earthquakes in February caused a loss of 2.6 billion dollars in our exports."

Mustafa Gültepe added that detailed studies on issues that are expected to affect trade in the near future, such as green consensus, digitalisation, blockchain, artificial intelligence and metaverse technology, are also included in the report.

SOME OF THE DETERMINATIONS AND EVALUATIONS IN TİM'S 'EXPORT 2023 REPORT' ARE AS FOLLOWS:

• Turkey reached the highest annual values in both goods and services exports in 2022. In 2022, goods exports worth $ 254.2 billion and services exports worth $ 90.3 billion were realised.
• Turkey's share of global exports increased to 1.02 per cent. Turkey's exports have grown faster than global exports in the last 3 years. Thus, the share from global exports reached the largest level.
• Since the 3rd quarter of 2020, there has been an increase in unit value in exports both globally and in Turkey.
• The high inflation seen on a global scale had an upward impact on Turkey's export unit prices.
• In global services exports, developing countries, including Turkey, recovered faster in the post-pandemic period.
• In 2022, chemicals and chemical products was the sector that exported the most with $33.5 billion. Automotive ranked second with $ 31 billion and ready-to-wear clothing and apparel ranked third with $ 21.2 billion.
• Turkey's economy completed 2022 with a growth of 5.6 per cent. The contribution of exports to growth was 2.2.
• In 2022, global goods trade amounted to $ 24.5 billion and global service exports amounted to $ 7.2 billion.
• In 2023, global trade is expected to increase by 1.7 per cent in quantity.
• In the report, global risks in 2023 were analysed in five categories: geopolitical, economic, environmental, social and technological. Technological and environmental risks are at the centre of risk perceptions in the medium and long term.
• High inflation on a global scale had an upward impact on Turkey's export unit prices.
• The USD/TL exchange rate is expected to increase in the second half of the year. It is important to maintain Turkey's exchange rate competitiveness.
• Exporters are expected to take temporary steps to protect their market shares, especially in developed countries, which will be beneficial in the medium term.
• Global demand is the main determinant of Turkish exports. Therefore, expectations, forecasts and scenarios regarding the global income level are directly related to the future of our exports.
• Steps need to be taken urgently to comply with the European Green Deal. Financing the green transformation is of critical importance in the harmonisation process.