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Transformation in the Indian steel market: China's incentives and prospects for price stabilisation

New incentives for China's property sector are expected to decrease the need for exports.

Transformation in the Indian steel market: China's incentives and prospects for price stabilisation

Indian steel companies will benefit in the short term as domestic HRC prices in India are on an equal level with those imported from China. New incentives for China's property sector are expected to increase domestic demand for steel, decreasing the need for Chinese exports. This may stabilise steel prices in India.

Analysts said that steel prices in India have decreased recently due to increased steel dumping and weak domestic demand, but incentives in China may help revive the sector. China's domestic steel demand has slowed significantly as the property sector, which accounts for 50% of domestic steel demand, has been the weakest in a decade. Weak domestic demand and overproduction have resulted in an increase in China's export share.  It is also highlighted that China's current net steel exports have reached 10 % of production, which may cause dumping. 

Analysts expect Indian HRC prices to stabilise in the second half of the fiscal year and improve in FY26. Chinese HRC prices are expected to remain unstable for the next 3-6 months, which may put pressure on Indian steelmakers. However, there are signs that Chinese HRC prices have hit a bottom, suggesting that a recovery may be coming soon.

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