The expectation of a decline in the country's oil production and exports due to the sanctions imposed on Russia also triggers a potential crisis in the global diesel supply.
Russia, the world's third largest producer of oil and petroleum products, is also the world's largest oil exporter.
While Russia exports approximately 5 million barrels of crude oil per day, exports of petroleum products such as diesel, gasoline, fuel-oil and naphtha reach 3 million barrels per day. Diesel constitutes 2 million barrels of the said petroleum products export. Global diesel demand stands at 30 million barrels per day.
After the war started by Russia in Ukraine, the embargo imposed on Russian oil by the USA and the United Kingdom, and the withdrawal of many European oil companies from their operations in the country, a decrease of approximately 3 million barrels in daily oil production is expected in Russia.
It is predicted that the decrease in Russia's crude oil production and the decrease in the export of petroleum products may prepare the ground for the potential supply constraint in diesel, which is one of the most important indicators for the global economy.
London-based petroleum data company OilX Senior Analyst Neil Crosby told Anadolu Agency (AA) that diesel demand has increased especially in the USA, OECD, Europe and Latin America, but refineries are having difficulty meeting this demand.
Stating that this situation started before the war, Crosby said:
"After the war, the possibility of a major restriction in diesel supply increased, but this should be looked at not only from the perspective of diesel but also from the point of view of crude oil supply. Russia's daily exports of 4.5-5 million barrels of crude oil and nearly 3 million barrels of petroleum products are present. Official As a result, there is no embargo on Russian oil except for the USA, UK and some small countries. Many companies stop buying Russian oil considering the reputational risk. Therefore, at the moment, the market does not yet know the real impact of the current situation. How much Russian exports will fall and how We will see the real effect in a few weeks."
Crosby noted that they monitor oil data daily and that Russia's oil exports decreased slightly at the end of March.
Explaining that if Russia's oil exports decrease by a few million barrels a day after a few weeks, Crosby said that they will first fill the oil stocks in the country, "When the stocks are full, Russia will have to reduce production. Russian oil company Transneft said last week that there is already a surplus of stocks. Russian oil "We see that the infrastructure is starting to have problems with the current production volume. This may lead to a decrease in oil production in a shorter time and faster than we thought." used the phrases.
Crosby emphasized that a significant decrease in Russia's crude oil and diesel exports will deeply shake the global markets, especially in Europe.
Sharing the information that the daily diesel demand is at the level of 30 million barrels, Crosby continued as follows:
"The decrease in Russia's diesel exports by 1 million barrels per day is a huge loss for the global diesel supply. Refineries in Europe will be most affected by the decline in exports, because the Druzhba pipeline, which carries Russian oil, directly feeds refineries in Central and Eastern Europe. "It is very difficult to find the same amount of alternatives for these refineries in case of oil cuts. We are talking about 800,000 barrels per day here. The different sources from which this amount can be supplied are very limited. This directly affects diesel production."
Crosby added that since Russia is not only a crude oil exporter but also an important diesel supplier, the loss of supply in Russia will reflect on prices and end consumers as well.
About 35 percent of Turkey's diesel imports come from Russia
Turkey's diesel consumption last year amounted to 26 million tons.
While the total diesel production reached 17 million tons, the import was recorded as 10.5 million tons. About 3.7 million tons of Turkey's diesel imports were supplied from Russia.
On the other hand, Turkey exported approximately 2.5 million tons of diesel in 2021.
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