The USA Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced yesterday that they have temporarily moved their embassy operations from Kiev to Lviv due to heightened security concerns in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, on the other hand, declared February 16, which is alleged to be the day when Russia will attack Ukraine, a public holiday with the name "Unity Day", with a video message he shared on social media.
The USA Department of Defense Spokesman John Kirby stated that Russia has increased its military buildup on the border with Ukraine, but they do not believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin has yet made a final decision on the invasion, while the finance ministers of the G-7 countries will have heavy economic consequences if Russia invades Ukraine. announced that they would impose sanctions.
The rise in oil prices accelerated as tensions between the two countries escalated. Brent oil's barrel was at $95.4 yesterday, the highest level since October 2014, while it is at $94.2 today.
While the rapid rise in commodity prices brought along uncertainties about the monetary policies of the central banks, which are already faltering in the face of increasing inflation pressures, the probability of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which exceeded 90 percent in the bond market last week, to increase interest rates by 50 basis points in March is 60 percent. went under.
On the other hand, yesterday St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the bank should fight inflation more aggressively, adding that the latest data point to accelerating inflation. Emphasizing the need for a front-loaded rate hike, Bullard said that data should be reacted to and that he believes this can be done without causing damage to the markets.
With these developments, a sales-weighted course was followed in the New York stock market yesterday, while the Dow Jones index depreciated by 0.49 percent, the S&P 500 index depreciated by 0.38 percent, while the Nasdaq index remained flat. The dollar index is moving around 96.2 today, after seeing its highest level in almost two weeks with 96.4 yesterday. The US 10-year bond yield, on the other hand, stands at 1.98% today, after closing just above 2 percent, which analysts described as the critical threshold, yesterday.
While the increasing geopolitical tension in Europe and the rising energy prices in parallel with this continued to be the focus of the agenda, the price of natural gas in March futures contracts rose to 88 euros, and was stabilized at the level of 79 euros today.
Speaking at the European Parliament (EP) General Assembly session yesterday, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde stated that inflation will remain high in the Eurozone in the near future and said, "Energy prices continue to be the main reason for the increase in inflation. No interest rate hike will be made until our net asset purchases are finished. "Any adjustment to our policy will be gradual. The ECB needs to be clear about what it can and cannot do." used the phrases.
With these developments, a sales-weighted course was observed in the European stock markets yesterday, while the FTSE 100 index in England fell by 1.69 percent, the DAX 30 index in Germany by 2.02 percent and the CAC 40 index in France by 2.27 percent. Euro/dollar parity is trading at 1.1320 levels with 0.2 percent gains, after falling to 1.1280 yesterday, the lowest level of the last 12 days.
On the Asian side, while geopolitical tensions and increasing number of new types of coronavirus (Kovid-19) cases continue to suppress stock markets, the country's economy grew by 1.3 percent in the last quarter of last year compared to the previous quarter, according to data released today in Japan. Japan's growth fell 5.4 percent year-on-year in the last quarter, below expectations. After the data, the Nikkei 225 index, close to the closing, lost value by 0.9 percent, while the Shanghai composite index in China rose by 0.2 percent.
Domestically, a sales-weighted trend was observed in Borsa Istanbul yesterday, parallel to the world stock markets, and the BIST 100 index closed the day at 2.001.94 points with a 2.39 percent depreciation. While the dollar/TL closed at 13.5976 with an increase of 0.6 percent yesterday, it is traded at 13.5820 at the opening of the interbank market today.
Analysts stated that increasing geopolitical risks continue to put pressure on the stock markets, adding that the news flow regarding the tension between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the intensified data agenda, are expected to be effective in today's pricing.
Stating that stock-based movements may come to the fore with the continuation of the balance sheet announcements of the companies traded in Borsa Istanbul, the analysts said that the budget balance in the country, Producer Price Index (PPI) in the USA, growth in the Euro Area and ZEW in Germany are on the data agenda. reported that their indices came to the fore.
Analysts stated that technically, 1,990 points in the BIST 100 index are in the position of support and 2,090 points in the position of resistance.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
10.00 UK unemployment rate for December
11.00 Turkey, January budget balance
13.00 Germany, February ZEW Economic Prospects Index
13.00 Eurozone, 4th quarter growth
16.00 US, February New York Fed Manufacturing Index
16.30 US, January PPI
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