The Danish Energy Agency has granted Nord Stream AG permission to begin conservation work on the damaged Nord Stream pipeline, expected in mid-2025. Meanwhile, Nord Stream 2 AG has hinted at the potential sale or restructuring of its pipeline to address financial obligations. Despite these setbacks, Russian gas exports to Europe via the TurkStream pipeline reached historic highs in January 2025, with Gazprom’s exports totaling 1.57 billion cubic meters. This growth comes as gas transit through Ukraine has ceased, leaving TurkStream as the primary route for Russian gas to Europe.
Domestic Demand and Market Projections
According to a report by the Pipe Metallurgical Company (TMK) and National Credit Ratings (NKR), Russia’s domestic pipe consumption in 2025 is unlikely to grow due to high borrowing costs, limited investments, and constrained production capacity. Demand for large-diameter pipes is expected to drop by 10–12% to 1.8 million tons as major pipeline projects stall. While repair and maintenance work on existing pipelines may support some demand, sanctions and high interest rates continue to dampen growth.
Horizontal drilling in Russia saw a 9.5% increase in 2024, though overall exploratory drilling remained stagnant. The Arctic region's oil and gas fields, facing extreme conditions, are driving the need for advanced pipe materials. Experts highlight the importance of developing corrosion-resistant, low-temperature-tolerant, and hydrogen-compatible pipe products. However, limited infrastructure investment and a lack of major pipeline construction projects mean the oil and gas sector will likely maintain current activity levels.
Export Trends and Challenges
Exports of large-diameter pipes (150,000–200,000 tons) and OCTG pipes (300,000–400,000 tons) remain constrained by high logistics costs and limited demand from friendly nations, such as CIS countries. Prospects for new export routes, including potential projects with China, Mongolia, and Iran, face significant delays and complex negotiations. While Africa offers growth opportunities for Russian pipe exporters, any expansion in this market is expected to be gradual, with annual growth estimated at 3–4%.
Future Outlook
The Russian pipe market is grappling with stagnating demand, geopolitical pressures, and economic constraints. Experts suggest that most investments will focus on maintaining existing infrastructure rather than initiating new projects. Meanwhile, innovation in pipe materials for extreme environments and gradual expansion into international markets, particularly Africa, could provide limited support to the industry.
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