The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has published the “Regional Economic Update” report, which includes the latest estimates for the economies it maintains relations with.
In the report, it was stated that the war is expected to have effects on economies far away from the main conflict zone in the coming period, and it was noted that the growth forecast for 2022 for the regions where the bank operates was reduced by 2.5 points to 1.7.
In the report, it was also noted that the economic growth in the same regions is predicted to be at the level of 5 percent next year.
In the report, it was stated that the increase in commodity prices such as food, oil, natural gas and metals is expected to have a profound impact on economies, especially low-income countries, and reminded that Russia and Ukraine provide high commodities to the global economy, including wheat, corn, fertilizer, titanium and nickel.
In the EBRD report, it was reported that in the evaluation made in November last year, the growth forecast for the Ukrainian economy, which was 3.5 percent, was revised as 20 percent contraction, and the growth forecast for the Russian economy, which was 3 percent, was revised to 10 percent.
In the report, it was reminded that the bank, which has not made any new investment activities in the country since 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea, closed its offices in Moscow and Minsk, the capital of Belarus, last week.
“Turkey will emerge as a regional distribution center”
In the report, where it was stated that Turkey's growth forecast for this year was revised from 3.5 percent to 2 percent, it was emphasized that a growth of 3.5 percent is expected next year.
The report also added, “Turkey will likely emerge as a regional distribution center serving western, South Korean and Japanese companies due to additional transportation and logistics costs.” assessment was included.
The report stated that Central Asian economies are highly dependent on money transfers made by employees in Russia, and that these economies are expected to be adversely affected by the sharp depreciation of the Russian ruble.
In the report, it was noted that the growth forecast of the Central Asian region for this year was reduced from 4.7 to 3.2, and the growth forecast of the Central European and Baltic countries from 4.7 to 3.4.
“War has a profound effect on the global economy”
In the report, where it was stated that Central European economies integrated with Ukraine due to their manufacturing supply chains may face serious supply problems in the future, it was stated that the North African economies and the Lebanese economy are also expected to be exposed to the risk of global wheat supply.
It was noted that the 2022 growth forecast of the EU member Southeast European region countries was reduced from 4.2 to 2.8, and the economic growth forecast of the Southeast and Eastern Mediterranean region for this year was reduced from 4.2 to 2.5 percent.
In the EBRD report, the economic growth forecast for the Western Balkans region, which was 4.1 percent for 2022, was also revised to 3.2.
Commenting on the report, EBRD Chief Economist Beata Javorcik said, “The war is having a profound impact on the economy in EBRD regions and globally.” said.
“Inflationary pressures were already high before the war,” Javorcik said. It will definitely increase now. This will have a disproportionate impact on many low-income countries where we work and on poorer segments of the population.” made his comment.
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