At the Steel Foreign Trade Association's “Söz Sizde - Steel Talks” event, the focus topic was “Tax winds after the US elections: Will Türkiye's iron and steel industry win or lose?”. Osman Türeyyen, who presented his evaluations under the title of Scrap, discussed how the scrap market will be affected as a result of the new US tariffs.
Can India Replace Türkiye in Scrap Imports?
Türeyen stated that India is an important competitor in the scrap import ranking and added: “India is one of the largest DRI producers in the world. They are coming fast with their arc furnace plants. In the last year, there are even rumors that 'India will replace Türkiye'. I think Türkiye will continue to be number one in scrap imports for the next 5-6 years. The main reason for this is the system. While 70% of Türkiye uses scrap in arc furnace and induction furnace plants, 30% uses scrap in BOF and blast furnaces. Türkiye's iron and steel plants will continue to be scrap importers. Iron and steel companies in Türkiye have been creating magic for many years. They have to continue to create this magic.”
Türkiye imported 20.1 million tons in 2024 and 4.5 million tons of these imports were with the US, Türeyyen emphasized, “When we look at the European Union, this figure is 12.8 million tons. The US, the European Union and Canada together account for 90% of Türkiye's imports. A 25% tax imposed by the US will restrict steel imports for US producers and US producers will increase their prices in order to increase their own production. Naturally, expectations are that US scrap exports will decline. As prices in the US domestic market rise, US scrap prices will also rise.”
Signals of prices will go up
Türeyyen stated that the expectation from the US is that scrap exports from the US will decrease and prices will increase as the US producer will increase its own production, “Since there are not many producers on the east coast of the US, what will come to the export ports must be exported somehow. All producers in the Lakes Region will strive to attract scrap of a certain quality, which means that less scrap will be exported from the US and prices will rise. EU countries will increase their prices not only in Türkiye but also in other world markets because of the 25% tax that the US has announced it will impose. While this is obviously natural, it is a development that will make it difficult and tiring for iron and steel mills in Türkiye. While it is a fact that Türkiye is dependent on the US for scrap, Türkiye's total exports to the US are around 400 thousand tons. Taken together, while the US is very important for Turkey in terms of scrap imports, it is not one of Türkiye's indispensable markets in terms of finished goods exports. The current developments will negatively affect Türkiye in terms of scrap. The taxes that the US will impose on its neighbors to the north and south will push US producers to take precautions in scrap.”
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