The ever-increasing risk of recession concerns in world economies continues to be influential on asset prices.
Uncertainties regarding the monetary policy path of global central banks amid inflation and recession risks weighed on the stock markets, while the statements of monetary policy officials this week are expected to have an impact on the direction of the markets.
While it is expected that Fed Chairman Powell's statements on Wednesday and Thursday will reduce the uncertainties about the Fed's next steps, it is feared that Powell's further hawkishness may strengthen the recession pricing in the country.
While Fed officials kept their hawkish stance at last week's monetary policy meeting, it is one of the question marks whether the 75 basis point rate hike, which took place for the first time since 1994, will be repeated outside the July meeting.
While it is priced in the money markets that the Fed will increase interest rates by 75 basis points in July with a 95 percent probability, Fed officials who made statements at the weekend stated that the inflation clues in the macroeconomic data will be effective in policy decisions.
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stated that she thinks the country will not enter a recession, and that the bank's delay in raising interest rates in the fight against inflation harms the country's economy.
Fed member Christopher Waller, on the other hand, stated that he would support a 75 basis point rate hike in July if the macroeconomic data meets his expectations.
After the expectations that economic activity will slow down with the increasing risk of recession around the world, the barrel price of Brent oil started the new week with a decrease, and currently finds buyers at 110.9 dollars, 0.5 percent below the previous closing.
Bitcoin, which dropped to $ 17,622 at the end of the week, stabilized below $ 20,000 after it largely compensated for its losses with rumors of a strong buyer entering the market.
On Friday, the S&P 500 index gained 0.22 percent and the Nasdaq index gained 1.46 percent in the New York stock market, while the Dow Jones index fell 0.13 percent. Markets in the US will be closed today for a holiday.
Today, eyes in Europe were turned to verbal guidance from ECB officials, especially the statements of European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde.
The ECB, which met urgently last week to reduce the fragilities of the regional economies, announced that they were working on a new tool that would come into play if the gap between the bond rates widened rapidly, and the bond yields of countries such as Italy and Greece decreased after the decision.
Today, ECB officials are expected to give more detailed information about the vehicle in question.
On the other hand, while the second round of the general elections in France is completed, according to the polls, the Ensemble alliance of French President Emmanuel Macron cannot obtain an absolute majority in the National Assembly.
On Friday, European stock markets followed a mixed course parallel to the global markets. While DAX 30 index increased by 0.67 percent in Germany and FTSE MIB 30 index increased by 0.29 percent in Italy, FTSE 100 index decreased by 0.41 percent in England and CAC 40 index decreased by 0.06 percent in France. Index futures contracts in Europe started the new week with a decrease and an increase.
While Asian stock markets started the week with a mixed course as recession concerns strengthened, the increasing tension between the USA and China also put pressure on the stock markets.
While the difference of opinion between the two countries on whether the Taiwan Strait is "International water" or not, the situation in question increases the risk perception in the region. However, the news that US President Joe Biden may reduce the tariffs on some Chinese companies supports the Chinese stock markets.
On the other hand, the People's Bank of China left its 1-year and 5-year lending rates unchanged at 3.70 percent and 4.45 percent, respectively, in line with expectations.
With these developments, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan decreased by 1 percent, the Kospi index in South Korea decreased by 2.5 percent, while the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong increased by 0.2 percent and the Shanghai composite index in China rose by 0.1 percent.
While the eyes of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) are turned to the Monetary Policy Committee (PPK) meeting to be held on Thursday, economists participating in the expectations survey of AA Finans predict that the CBRT will keep the policy rate constant at 14 percent.
The BIST 100 index, which differed positively from the world stock markets on Friday, finished the day at 2,533.33 points with an increase of 1.93 percent.
Dollar/TL is trading at 17.3430 at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing at 17.3265 with an increase of 0.1 percent on Friday.
Analysts stated that the data agenda is calm in the country today, and that, in addition to the statements of ECB President Lagarde, abroad, the Producer Price Index (PPI) in Germany and the balance of payments data in the Euro Zone will be followed, technically 2.520 and 2.500 in the BIST 100 index. He said that the levels are in the support position and 2,560 points in the resistance position.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
09.00 Germany, May PPI
10.00 Turkey, international investment position for April
10.00 Turkey, May Foreign Producer Price Index
11.00 Eurozone, April balance of payments
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