Market expects CBRT to keep interest rates constant

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey is expected to keep the interest rate constant at the meeting to be held this week.

The median expectation of 17 institutions participating in the July CBRT interest rate decision expectation survey of the Bloomberg HT Research Unit was that the policy rate would remain constant at 14 percent.

The median expectation of 13 institutions that shared their year-end forecast was that interest rates would remain unchanged until the end of the year, at 14 percent. The institution that gave the lowest year-end forecast, the interest rate cuts started in August and the policy rate was reduced to 9 percent until the end of the year, and the institution that shared the highest year-end policy rate forecast was 26 points in October, and the policy rate was reduced to 40 percent by the end of the year. shared that they expect it to be upgraded.

While three of the 8 institutions participating in the question about the direction and month of the CBRT's next move will expect an interest rate hike in July 2023, one of the other two institutions in March 2023 and the other in October 2022, one of the 3 institutions that predicted a rate cut until the end of 2022. shared their expectations for a rate cut step, one in August 2022 and one in March 2023.

In this survey period, the median expectation of 17 institutions that answered the question of current account balance for the end of the year was that the year would end with a current account deficit of 42.5 billion dollars. The highest estimate for the current account deficit was $55 billion, and the lowest estimate was $30.4 billion.