Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry's forecast for the 2024/2025 fiscal year ending March 31, 2025 is around 83.72 million tons, down 3.6% from the previous period. According to the ministry, 20.93 million tons of steel will be produced in the country in the first quarter of 2025, representing a decrease of 2.4% compared to the January-March 2024 period.
The long-term decrease in steel production in Japan is mainly due to the long-term recession in the construction and automotive industries. In addition, Japan's exports of steel products have been declining.
However, IEEJ experts say that the Japanese economy has already bottomed out and a way out is possible. An increase in vehicle production is expected in the fiscal year 2025/2026. This increase is projected at 1.8% compared to the previous fiscal year. It is also hoped that banning tariffs on Chinese electric cars in Europe and the US could open up new opportunities for Japanese companies. However, the recently announced merger between Nissan and Honda shows that the industry is in a serious crisis.
Tadashi Imai, President of the Japan Iron and Steel Federation, suggests another way to support the Japanese steel industry. Imai argues that imports of steel products from China should be limited, which would allow local producers to increase their share of the domestic market.
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