Over recent years, both countries have seen their market share decline to the United States, Russia, and Australia due to changes in trade routes driven by geopolitical factors. With reduced demand for coal in Europe, miners in Indonesia and South Africa are now competing for a larger portion of India's steady coal imports market.
According to Kgabi Masia, Exxaro Resources' Chief Coal Operations Officer, South Africa sees its low sulfur, high calorific value coal as advantageous for supplying the Indian market, especially with expectations of growth in India's steel production. South Africa has redirected some of its coal supplies from Europe to India to capitalize on higher prices, while Indonesia has faced increased competition from Australia as it expanded its coal exports to China. Masia expects South Africa to supply 60 million metric tons to India by March 2025, aiming to increase its presence in the Indian market.
Both Indonesia and South Africa experienced declines in their shares of Indian thermal coal imports in recent years. Despite domestic demand increases, Indonesia remains optimistic about strong Indian demand for its coal. Indonesia, as the world's largest exporter of thermal coal, aims for record output this year, anticipating sustained demand from India.
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