India may face a shortage of iron ore by 2031. At the Mjunction India Steel Market Conference in Bhubaneswar, market participants said iron ore demand could increase from 194 million tons to 350 million tons by fiscal 2031. This will put pressure on domestic iron ore supply and create a potential supply deficit of 22 million tons.
India's current iron ore production is recorded at 405 million tons. However, regional imbalances are noteworthy; while there is an excess supply in Eastern India, there are serious shortages in Central and Southern regions. High logistics costs drive coastal steel mills to imports.
As a net exporter of iron ore, India imports high-quality raw materials from Australia, Brazil and South Africa. In 2023, imports were around 5 million tons. Vivek Nath, CEO of Odisha Mining Corporation, emphasised that the 45% iron content standard set by the Indian Bureau of Mines limits the supply of high-quality raw materials and without technological advancement, many materials will remain unusable.
Odisha accounts for 25% of India's total steel production and plans to supply more than 40 million tons of iron ore in the 2024/2025 fiscal year. However, regional imbalances and high logistics costs will continue to make ore imports unattractive.
India's steel production is expected to reach 200-210 million tons by FY2029/2030, representing an increase of 40-47%. However, the availability of raw materials with high iron content is still uncertain.
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