While inflation in the USA continues to be influential on asset prices, the buyer's trend in the bond markets draws attention after the latest data.
Analysts said that buying in bond markets was effective, with the expectation that the slowdown in core inflation may herald the peak of inflation in the US.
Analysts stated that the possibility that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may increase interest rates by 50 basis points less than expected this year supports the stock markets, but stated that the cautious stance is preserved.
With these developments, the probability of the Fed's interest rate hike by 50 basis points at the meeting in May increased to 89 percent, while the US 10-year bond yield fell to 2% after seeing its highest level since December 2018 with 2.83 percent during the week. Balanced at 67.
On the other hand, banks in the USA started to announce their first quarter balance sheets. JPMorgan Chase's net profit in the first quarter of this year fell 42 percent compared to the same period last year, as the Russia-Ukraine war caused market fluctuations.
JPMorgan Chase Chief Executive Officer (CEO), Jamie Dimon, in his statement on the bank's first quarter balance sheet, stated that they are optimistic about the economy, at least in the short term, and that he does not foresee a recession, but stated that it is "absolutely" possible.
Analysts stated that the financial results of banks in the USA will continue to be announced and that stock-based volatility may increase.
While steps towards the Russia-Ukraine war continue to be taken in the USA, US President Joe Biden approved the 800 million dollar military aid to Ukraine.
After the price of Brent oil increased by 3.3 percent to 108.6 dollars yesterday, it was stabilized at 107.9 dollars in the new day, with the concern that the supply-side problems, which have increased since the beginning of the week, may recur.
Yesterday, the S&P 500 index gained 1.12 percent, the Nasdaq index gained 2.03 percent and the Dow Jones index gained 1.01 percent in the New York stock market. Index futures contracts in the USA started the day with an upward trend.
In Europe, the eyes were turned to the monetary policy decisions of the ECB and the guidance to be made by Christine Lagarde after the meeting.
While the ECB is not expected to change interest rates, it is expected that the slowdown in asset purchase programs will continue with the uncertainties brought about by the Russia-Ukraine war.
In addition, it is stated that the ECB may use some tools to prevent the selling pressure that may occur in the bonds of weak Eurozone economies.
Yesterday, DAX index decreased by 0.34 percent in Germany, FTSE 100 index gained 0.05 percent in England, FTSE MIB 30 index increased by 0.22 percent in Italy and CAC 40 index gained 0.07 percent in France. European indices started their futures transactions with a buying weighted course today.
While the positive trend in the USA is carried over to the Asian stock markets in the new day, the expectation that the Central Bank of China (PBoC) may cut the policy rate and required reserves tomorrow also feeds the risk appetite.
Despite the expectations that China will take dovish steps, increasing inflation pressure has led other Asian countries to hawkish policies, while the Central Bank of South Korea increased its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.5 percent today.
While the Singapore Central Bank took tightening measures in its monetary policy, the bank's increase in its inflation forecast also eroded the risk appetite.
The dollar/yen parity, which saw the highest level of the last 20 years with 126.3 yesterday, was stabilized at 125.3 with a decrease of 0.3 percent in the new day.
With these developments, Shanghai composite index increased by 1.6 percent in China, Nikkei 225 index increased by 1.20 percent in Japan, Hang Seng index increased by 0.80 percent in Hong Kong, while Kospi index in South Korea remained flat.
Domestically, the BIST 100 index, after reaching its historical peak of 2,497.8 points yesterday, started to decline with the profit sales that increased its effect and closed the day at 2,460,43 points with a decrease of 0.14 percent compared to the previous closing.
After closing at 14.5958 with a flat course yesterday, the Dollar/TRY is trading at 14.6030 at the opening of the interbank market today.
Analysts stated that the CBRT's interest rate decision in the country, the ECB's interest rate decision abroad, as well as retail sales in the USA, weekly unemployment applications and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index data will be followed. He noted that the levels of 2.390 and 2.390 are in the support position.
Economists who participated in the expectations survey of AA Finans do not expect the CBRT to change the policy rate.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
10.00 Turkey, the loan debt of the private sector from abroad in February
14.00 Turkey, CBRT's interest rate decision
14.30 Turkey, weekly money and bank statistics
14.45 Eurozone, ECB's interest rate decision
15.30 US, March retail sales
15.30 US, weekly jobless claims
15.30 USA, April University of Michigan consumer confidence index
Comments
No comment yet.