The US Federal Reserve's (Fed) officials' remarks since the beginning of the week that they would be careful in the monetary tightening process contributed to the positive trend in the stock markets yesterday.
According to the macroeconomic data announced in the USA yesterday, private sector employment decreased by 301 thousand in January with the effect of the Omicron variant in the new type of coronavirus (Kovid-19) epidemic, for the first time since December 2020.
With the expectations that negative realizations in the employment market will push the Fed to be restrained in monetary policy steps, the upward trend in the New York stock market moved to the fourth consecutive day.
On the other hand, the loss of more than 20 percent value in the futures market after the profitability of Facebook, which announced its balance sheet for the first time under the name Meta, in the balance sheets announced after the New York stock market closed, negatively affected the risk appetite on a global basis.
Accordingly, although the revenue of the company in the fourth quarter of last year increased by 20 percent compared to the same period of the previous year and reached 33.7 billion dollars, its net profit decreased by 8 percent to 10.3 billion dollars.
While the 10-year bond interest rate of the USA, which maintained its horizontal course with these developments, was stabilized at 1.77 percent, the barrel price of Brent oil, which ended its six-day upward trend, is currently trading at $ 88.7, 0.5 percent below the previous close.
Yesterday, the S&P 500 index gained 0.94 percent, the Nasdaq index rose 0.50 percent and the Dow Jones index gained 0.63 percent in the New York stock market. In the USA, index futures contracts are on the move with sellers on the new day.
In the European stock markets, the eyes were turned to the monetary policy decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE).
While the ECB is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at today's meeting, the BoE is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points.
The fact that the pricing in the bond markets indicates that the ECB will increase interest rates twice this year, increases the importance of ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech.
Lagarde, in his previous statements, stated that the ECB will not increase interest rates, but will take into account the course of inflation, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 5.1 percent on an annual basis, well behind expectations, according to the data released in the Euro Zone yesterday.
After the CPI data, the market expectation that the ECB will raise interest rates once this year doubled, while the forecasts for the date of the first interest rate hike were changed from December to July.
While both banks are expected to maintain their asset purchases, the ECB's changes regarding some programs and BoE's guidance on the future of the asset purchase program are important.
The tension between Russia and Ukraine continues to be the main factor that erodes the risk appetite in the region. Spokesperson of the US Department of Defense (Pentagon), John Kirby, stated that they will send a total of 3,000 soldiers, 1,000 to Romania, and 2,000 to Germany and Poland, for the purpose of deterrence against Russia.
Yesterday, DAX index lost 0.04 percent in Germany, FTSE 100 index gained 0.63 percent in England, CAC 40 index gained 0.22 percent in France and FTSE MIB 30 index gained 0.60 percent in Italy. European indices are negative in futures today.
In Asia, the downward trend in the open markets accelerated due to the increase in selling pressure in the futures markets in the USA, while Sony shares led the decline in the Japanese stock market with a depreciation approaching 7 percent.
Macroeconomic data released today in Japan pointed out that the contraction in economic activity continues. Accordingly, the service sector Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in Japan was 47.6 and the composite PMI was 49.9.
While the stock markets in China, South Korea and Hong Kong were not traded due to the New Year holidays, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan lost 1.09 percent and the ASX 200 index in Australia lost value by 0.14 percent.
Domestically, eyes were turned to the inflation data to be announced today. Economists participating in the expectations survey of AA Finans predict that the CPI will increase by 10.09 percent in January, while the annual inflation, which was 36.08 percent in the previous month, will rise to 48.42 percent, according to the average of the economists' January inflation expectations (10.09 percent). being calculated.
Yesterday, the BIST 100 index decreased by 0.65 percent to 2.002.24 points. Dollar/TL, on the other hand, is trading at 13.52 at the opening of the interbank market today, after increasing 0.7 percent to 13.4761 yesterday.
Analysts pointed out that the balance sheet disclosures of companies traded in Borsa Istanbul started to intensify and stated that stock-based volatility may increase in this period.
According to the financial results announced yesterday, Garanti BBVA's net profit in 2021 came in at TL 13.1 billion, just above the expectations.
Analysts stated that in today's data calendar, the services sector and composite PMI, as well as factory orders and durable goods orders in the USA, came to the fore, and said that technically, 2.035 and 2.050 levels in the BIST 100 index were in the position of resistance and 1.990 points in the support position.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
10.00 Turkey, January CPI
11.55 Germany, January service sector and composite PMI
12.00 Eurozone, January services sector and composite PMI
12.30 UK, January services sector and composite PMI
13.00 Euro Zone, December Producer Price Index
14.30 Turkey, weekly money and bank statistics
15.00 UK, BoE's interest rate decision
15.45 Eurozone, ECB's interest rate decision
16.30 US, weekly jobless claims
17.45 US, January services and composite PMI
18.00 US, January ISM non-manufacturing index
18.00 US, December factory orders and durable goods orders
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