Before the Russia-Ukraine war, 40% of the European Union’s (EU) natural gas needs were met by Russia. This reliance peaked by 2022, thanks to 50 years of pipeline investments. However, post-war sanctions and the decommissioning of pipelines significantly reduced Russia's share in the EU market. Russian gas exports, which stood at 201.7 billion cubic meters in 2018, fell to approximately 35 billion cubic meters in 2023. Of this, 15 billion cubic meters were transported via pipelines through Ukraine, while the remainder was delivered as liquefied natural gas (LNG).
TurkStream Could Become Europe’s Main Gas Supply Line
With the halt of gas transit through Ukraine, Türkiye is set to become a critical transit point for gas transportation to Europe via the TurkStream pipeline. Operational since 2020 and with an annual capacity of 31.5 billion cubic meters, TurkStream has delivered 40 billion cubic meters of gas to Türkiye and 53 billion cubic meters to Europe to date. Russian officials have indicated that up to 63 billion cubic meters of gas could be transported to Europe via TurkStream.
This development is expected to cost Ukraine approximately $800 million in annual transit revenue, while Gazprom is projected to lose about $5 billion in gas sales.
Experts Highlight Türkiye’s Strategic Position
Erste Investment’s Oil and Gas Analyst Tamas Pletser remarked that Ukraine’s move has pushed Russia to increase gas sales to the Turkish market. Pletser stated, “TurkStream and Blue Stream have become the main lines for Russian gas exports. Türkiye holds a critical position as both a regional gas trade hub and a key supplier to Europe.”
Senior Economist Akira Yanagisawa from the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan, emphasized that there are limited alternatives to TurkStream for gas shipments to Europe. Yanagisawa noted, “Previously, 45 billion cubic meters of gas were transported annually through Ukraine. With this route now shut down, Europe will either have to turn to LNG imports or increase gas purchases via Türkiye.”
Research Associate Zuzana Princova from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies highlighted Türkiye’s potential to expand its capacity for transporting Azerbaijani and Russian gas to Europe. Princova stated, “If capacity increases in projects like TurkStream and TANAP, Türkiye will play an even more significant role in supplying gas to Europe.”
Türkiye Reinforces Its Goal of Becoming a Gas Hub
In recent years, Türkiye has developed its LNG infrastructure, increasing its capacity to supply liquefied natural gas alongside pipeline imports. As of 2024, LNG agreements have reached a total volume of 100 billion cubic meters. BOTAŞ has signed long-term LNG agreements with Oman, ExxonMobil, Shell, and TotalEnergies, enhancing the diversity of gas supply.
Türkiye currently imports gas via pipelines from Russia, Azerbaijan, and Iran. The TurkStream pipeline has an annual capacity of 31.5 billion cubic meters, while the Blue Stream pipeline imports 16 billion cubic meters annually. The TANAP pipeline from Azerbaijan has a capacity of 16 billion cubic meters, and the Iran-Türkiye pipeline carries 10 billion cubic meters of gas per year.
Through these strategic steps, Türkiye is steadily advancing toward its goal of becoming a regional gas trade hub, cementing its role as a key player in Europe’s energy security.
Comments
No comment yet.