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There is no short-term solution to the energy crisis

Although Putin calmed the natural gas market and Biden calmed the oil market a bit, experts are of the opinion that the global energy crisis cannot be resolved overnight, and prices will continue to rise due to the decline in fossil investments in line with both strong demand and green transformation goals.

There is no short-term solution to the energy crisis

After China, the US also announced that it will sell oil from reserves. The USA President Joe Biden's announcement of the sale from the reserve came just hours after Russian leader Vladimir Putin's statements that "we will increase the natural gas flow to Europe, but the problem is not ours". Putin said that if "North Stream 2 is approved", he will do his part to resolve the crisis. Although the statements of the two leaders caused sharp decreases in natural gas and oil prices yesterday, the industry, whose energy costs from natural gas to coal and carbon prices, from oil to electricity have increased significantly since the beginning of the year, is entering the winter months that are expected to be harsh in the northern hemisphere.

The fact that renewable energy does not get cheaper at the desired rate and fossil fuels replace the wind in "windless weather" as in the example of the UK, the natural gas supply cannot be increased at the required rate, the energy costs of companies, especially natural gas, increase many times over in the European continent, which constitutes a significant part of the global demand, It is not a temporary bottleneck, according to EU officials and experts.

Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson, who is at the head of the EU's energy policy, also admits to the FT that “the problem cannot be solved immediately” and says: “There is nothing Brussels can do for a short-term solution, but it can help EU governments, including reducing taxes on energy. We will encourage 'targeted' national support.” Emphasizing that the crisis did not originate in Europe, Simson stated that they prepared proposals with long-term solutions including options such as "the EU's joint energy purchase and increasing stocks in order not to be adversely affected by new supply shocks". Some countries such as Poland, Spain and the Czech Republic have also started to complain about the emissions trading system ETS, where carbon prices exceed 60 Euros, but countries such as Germany and the Netherlands are more committed to the Green Deal and, in the words of the German energy minister, “There are many reasons for the increase in prices. Do not confuse this issue with the EU's climate policies," he says.

Jim Burkhard, head of oil, energy and mobility research at IHS Markit, said: “It doesn't look like it will be resolved any time soon. There is no Saudi Arabia for natural gas. It looks like the northern hemisphere will have hardship throughout the winter,” he said. France-based investment bank Société Générale also told its customers this week, “The rise in European energy prices is unprecedented. “Electricity prices have never risen so quickly before, and autumn has just begun, and temperatures are still not too low.” In case of a harsh winter, Burkhard predicts that economies with higher dependence on natural gas in electricity production, such as the UK and Italy, will be the ones that will have the most difficulty.

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