While the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that some of the military units that completed their duties within the scope of the exercises yesterday started to return to their bases, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that they did not want a war in Europe and that they made proposals regarding the negotiation process. US President Joe Biden, on the other hand, stated that if Russia attacks Ukraine, the US will respond harshly, and that every chance should be given to diplomacy in order to resolve the crisis.
As the statements made partially calmed the tension between the two countries, the global risk appetite increased, while the purchases in the stock markets and the retreat in commodity prices, especially gold and oil, accelerated.
With the increase in geopolitical risks, the barrel price of Brent oil, which was at its highest level since October 2014 with 94.7 dollars, decreased to 90.7 dollars yesterday after the news flow. While the ounce price of gold, which tested the highest level in about 8 months with $ 1.880 yesterday, fell below $ 1.845, today it is traded at $ 1.853. On the other hand, natural gas prices in Europe decreased from 80 euros yesterday to 67 euros in futures, while they were stabilized at 70 euros today.
Looking at the macroeconomic data side, the Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 1 percent monthly and 9.7 percent annually in January, above the expectations, according to the data announced in the USA yesterday. While the announced data reveal that price pressures continue to be high, the January meeting minutes of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) Open Market Committee (FOMC) to be announced today, with the decreasing geopolitical risk perception, placed the focus of the investors.
With these developments, a buying-heavy trend was observed in the New York stock market yesterday. While the Dow Jones index gained 1.22 percent, the S&P 500 index 1.58 percent and the Nasdaq index gained 2.53 percent, the dollar index remained flat today after closing just below the 96 limit with a decrease of 0.4 percent yesterday. The 10-year bond yield of the USA, which decreased from 2.05% yesterday to 1.97%, is at 2.03% today.
While the news flow regarding the Ukraine tension in Europe and the volatility in energy prices in parallel with this remain at the center of the agenda, verbal guidance on when the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise the first interest rate in the face of rising inflation pressures is also closely watched. European Central Bank Governing Council Member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said in a statement yesterday that the bank may end its net asset purchases until the third quarter of this year and raise interest rates shortly thereafter.
With the decrease in political tension, the RTS index in Russia increased by 5.1 percent yesterday and closed at 1,498 points. After the growth data in the Euro Area met the expectations with an annual rate of 4.6 percent in the 4th quarter of 2021, the FTSE 100 index was 1.03% in the UK, the DAX 30 index was 1.98% in Germany and the CAC 40 index was 1% in France. It gained .86. Euro/dollar parity is on a horizontal course today after completing the day at 1.1358 with an increase of 0.6 percent yesterday.
On the Asian side, discussions continue regarding the economic effects of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) maintaining its loose monetary policy stance, unlike central banks that have taken steps towards global normalization. BoJ Chairman Haruhiko Kuroda said that abandoning the excessively loose monetary policy could temporarily damage the huge assets the bank holds. Stating that this possibility cannot be ignored, Kuroda stated that it cannot be said that it will definitely happen.
On the other hand, according to the data released today in China, compared to the same month of the previous year, PPI increased by 9.1 percent and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.9 percent, below the expectations. With these developments, it is noteworthy that the new day started positively on the Asian stock markets, while the Nikkei 225 index rose by 2.2 percent and the Shanghai composite index in China rose by 0.7 percent, close to the closing.
Domestically, the BIST 100 index, which started the day with a decline in Borsa Istanbul yesterday and started to rise with the statements that reduced the geopolitical tension, closed the day at 2,038.16 points with a gain of 1.81 percent. On the other hand, after moving in the 13.56-13.69 band yesterday, the Dollar/TL parity is trading at 13.5970 levels at the opening of the interbank market today.
Analysts noted that the news flow regarding the tension between Russia and Ukraine will continue to be closely monitored, and that even though the tension has decreased, the risks are still on the table and noted that investors should act cautiously.
Stating that the minutes of the Fed's January meeting are in the focus of investors today, analysts said that the clues to be given in the minutes regarding the rate and timing of the bank's rate hike will be important for the future direction of the stock markets.
Analysts also stated that the housing price index in the country, inflation in the UK, industrial production in the Eurozone and the USA will be followed today, and that, technically, 1,990 points in the BIST 100 index are in the position of support and the level of 2,090 is in the resistance position.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
10.00 UK, January CPI
10.00 Turkey, the loan debt of the private sector from abroad in December
13.00 Euro Zone, industrial production in December
14.30 Turkey, December house price index
16.30 US, January retail sales
17.15 USA, January industrial production and capacity utilization rate
22.00 FOMC meeting minutes
Comments
No comment yet.