“Söz Sizde - Steel Talks”, which keeps the pulse of the iron and steel industry and is held regularly to discuss unspoken topics in the industry, took place on March 4, 2025 between 14:00-16:00. The event was convened to discuss the trade wars affecting the whole world and the possible effects of the 25% tariff imposed by US President Donald Trump on iron, steel and aluminum imports on the sector.
Leading representatives of the steel industry participated in the event, where the possible effects of the US administration's import tariffs and trade policies were evaluated. The focus of the event was “Tax winds after the US elections: Will Türkiye's iron and steel industry win or lose?”
Harun Bozoklar, President of Bozoklar Metal, was the moderator of the event. In his speech, Bozoklar stated that as the Steel Foreign Trade Association, they support the events organized to contribute to the development of the sector. Emphasizing that everyone's contribution is of great importance for the future of the sector, Bozoklar also touched upon the difficulties of the past year. Noting that the gradual decline in prices every month made the sector even more challenging, he added that the increasing exports from the Far East made the process even more challenging for Türkiye. Bozoklar also underlined that the macroeconomy is not following the desired course and that globalization is beginning to give way to localization. Noting that one of the most important factors that will affect the iron and steel industry is the changing tax rates in the US with the re-election of Trump, Bozoklar emphasized the importance of adapting quickly to changing dynamics and stated that global crises also bring global opportunities.
Delivering the opening presentation of the event, Cem Öztüre, Chairman of Öztüre Holding and SteelRadar, drew attention to the direct impact of the changing political atmosphere on global trade dynamics. Evaluating the possible repercussions of the new US tariff policies on the steel industry, Öztüre stated, “Is this just a tax wind or will it turn into a storm? Time will tell,”
Cem Öztüre stated in his presentation that in 2024, the US will produce 79 million tons of crude steel using 75% of its production capacity, while Türkiye will produce 36 million tons with 55-60%. Stating that Mexico, Brazil and Canada, which are in the top three of the countries that the US imports iron and steel from, may be among the countries that will be most affected after the tariffs that are expected to take effect on March 12, he pointed out that the US exchanges with the countries that are expected to be most affected by the tariffs in iron and steel trade and emphasized that the ranking of these countries will decrease and the ranking of other trade partners of the US will increase.
EMR USA Tao Bai and Osman Türeyyen discussed the impact of tariffs on the scrap market. Osman Türeyyen, General Manager of MetKim Metal, stated that the expectation from the US is that scrap exports from the US will decrease and prices will increase as the US producer will increase its own production. “Since there are not many producers on the east coast of the US, what comes to the export ports has to be exported somehow. All producers in the Lake District will make efforts to attract scrap of a certain quality, which means that less scrap will be exported from the US and prices will rise,” he added.
“These developments will negatively affect Türkiye in terms of scrap”
Türeyyen stated, “EU countries will increase their prices not only in Türkiye but also in other world markets due to the 25% tax announced by the US. While this is obviously natural, it is a development that will make it difficult and tiring for iron and steel mills in Türkiye. While it is a fact that Türkiye is dependent on the US for scrap, Türkiye's total exports to the US are around 400 thousand tons. Taken together, while the US is very important for Türkiye in terms of scrap imports, it is not one of Türkiye's indispensable markets in terms of finished goods exports. The current developments will negatively affect Türkiye in terms of scrap,” stated Türeyyen and concluded his speech by adding that the taxes that the US will impose on its neighbors to the north and south will push US producers to take precautions in scrap.
“The US market may offer new opportunities for Turkish manufacturers”
EMR USA Commercial General Manager Tao Bai made important assessments on the current dynamics of the industry. Commenting on Türkiye, Tao Bai stated: “After the Section 232 tariff came into effect in March 2018, exemptions for certain countries created an imbalance in competitive conditions.However, the consistent 25% tariff now being proposed may offer new opportunities for Turkish producers in the US market.In the last two years, 82.5% of imported steel has been exempt from tariffs, while Türkiye's exports, averaging 28,000 tons per month, accounted for only 2% of this volume.This creates a repositioning opportunity for Turkish steelmakers, given their competitive cost structure and strong production capacity. Taking quick action, the industry has started to show itself with HRC and OCTG products in key import destinations such as Houston.”
Current US HRC market is driven by market sentiment rather than key economic indicators, Bai underlined. “Research suggests that demand from traditional sectors such as agriculture, construction, trucking and trailers has not responded to the price increase to the extent expected, with real demand falling by 10-15% in the first quarter of 2024. Therefore, although the near- to medium-term prospects for imports remain positive, the expected seasonal slowdown in the summer months, the volatility of the dollar and the possibility of the US economy losing momentum add to the uncertainties. At the same time, the reaction of the European steel industry to the US tariff policies may also affect the recovery of Europe, a critical market for Türkiye's HRC exports.”
Kerem Vaizoğlu, Managing Partner of Irpex International, evaluated the long product market and the global competitiveness of Turkish iron and steel producers and made important statements about cost balances and opportunities in the US market.
Vaizoğlu drew attention to the challenges faced by the global iron and steel industry in recent years and emphasized the pressure on Turkish producers, especially fluctuations in raw material prices, energy costs and supply chain problems. He noted that Türkiye could take advantage of the trade opportunities created by US President Donald Trump's new steel tariffs if it aligns its steel production costs more closely with global markets.
Türkiye is not a target
Çolakoğlu Metalurji Coordinator and IMSAD Board Member Tayfun İşeri made statements about the flat product market and stated that former US President Donald Trump's trade policies are primarily aimed at countries with trade deficits and that Türkiye is not a target in this context.Emphasizing that Türkiye's trade balance with the US is around 15 billion dollars of imports and 15 billion dollars of exports, İşeri stated that “Türkiye will not be on Trump's radar as long as it is not on the radar politically.
The US strengthened the steel sector with the Section 232 regulation, İşeri emphasized, adding that the US imported 27 million tons of steel last year, of which 7 million tons were semi-finished products. Stating that 17 million tons of the remaining 20 million tons of imports were tax-free, İşeri stated, “Türkiye did not get a share in these 20 million tons of imports, but it took part in the 3 million tons of steel that entered with tax with 400 thousand tons. In other words, we have a market share close to 15%. This is not a rate to be underestimated,”
Demand stopped suddenly
Tata International Limited Sales Manager Kutay Kenan Ülkü spoke about the impact of taxes on the EU market. Kenan Ülkü stated “We should look at Europe first, not the US. Europe protected itself with quotas. It is still experiencing its troubles. Even though Türkiye has an advantage in hair, if restrictions are imposed, our path will be worse. In the last two weeks, the demands have suddenly stopped and the EU has protected itself. There is talk that there will be a limit on total quotas, just like the quotas in Türkiye. First it was 18% and now it is not known what will happen. Also, even if it does not touch the quotas, the economy in the UK, Germany and France is not good. If demand increases as it used to, then imports will increase. As Türkiye, let's not make any big investments, let's look at maintaining our position in the EU rather than selling to the US.”
SteelWise General Manager Emrah Uğursal, speaking about the impact of the taxes on the Chinese market, emphasized that China affected global markets with 110 million tons of steel exports in 2024. Uğursal stated that this figure could fall below 100 million tons in 2025. He cited increased protectionism measures in Southeast Asia and South America as one of the main reasons for this decline. However, Uğursal pointed out that the companies creating new production capacities in these regions are largely Chinese investors.
Commenting on prices, Uğursal indicated that a small decline is likely in the coming period. He added that the news of China's capacity reduction and the increase in global iron ore production could pull iron ore prices from the $100 level to the $90 band. Reminding that there was a 4% decline in steel prices in 2024, Uğursal noted that this rate could be around 3% in 2025.
“ Will create serious inflation”
Murat Aşkın, Founder and CEO of StaalX, made important statements about the recent tax regulations in the US market.
Aşkın stated that taxes were imposed on all products to Canada and Mexico and added, “This was a development that we did not anticipate, because this situation will create serious inflation. However, these taxes may fall again in the near future. 25% is a serious tax rate,”
Aşkın emphasized that the US has changed the Section 232 regulation and will impose an extra 25% tax on Canada and Mexico on March 12. “These two countries rank 1st and 3rd in steel exports to the US, respectively. In this case, they will largely withdraw from the market,” Aşkın added that other countries, such as Brazil, are also expected to lower their tariffs to 25%.
Noting that Türkiye's tax rates are currently unchanged, Aşkın stated, “If the situation continues like this, there will be a big advantage for Türkiye.” However, Aşkın pointed out that in the future, the US may impose reciprocal tax practices with other countries and added, “There is no need to apply different tax rates for each product, there are thousands of products. I think an average tax rate will be applied. The Ministry of Trade is investigating this issue,”
Murat Aşkın stated that there are G20 countries among the countries targeted by the US and Türkiye is also included in this scope and noted, “Türkiye's trade deficit with the US is not very big, only around 1-2 billion dollars. This is also not a very big figure. However, countries such as Brazil, Vietnam and India may impose reciprocal tariffs,”
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