European stainless steel scrap prices could decrease further from already low levels in the near future due to the dual effect of reduced domestic production and lower prices in key export markets in Asia, trading firms said at the International Recycling Convention Bureau in Abu Dhabi on 23-24 October.
"Prices could reach levels not seen since the early stages of the pandemic," the German trading company said.
At the peak of the pandemic in 2020, the average 304 (18-8) CIF Rotterdam stainless steel scrap price averaged $1,140.62 per tonne. While current prices are well above that level, at just over $1,400 per tonne, European producers are said to be collectively offering lower prices and lobbying for inclusion in Europe's Critical Raw Materials Act, which limits the flow of scrap out of the region.
During the meeting, the British Metal Recycling Association said that steelmakers in the country had emphasised the current shortage of raw materials to the British government in an attempt to reduce exports to the EU and other countries.
As most scrap yards in Europe continue to report shortages in an environment where the recovery in finished stainless steel production has stalled this year, suppliers are concerned that any export controls will lead to significant price falls.
Alongside the downward trend in Europe, a sharp fall in scrap prices in India, the largest export market, has put European sellers, who ship about 300,000 tonnes of scrap a year to India, in a difficult position. According to trade data, EU scrap exports to India increased by 61.5% to 137,263 tonnes in the first eight months of this year.
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