According to CRISIL's latest report, India's steel demand is expected to grow by 8-9% in 2025. This growth will be driven by increased steel-intensive construction activities in the housing and infrastructure sectors, as well as strong demand from industries such as engineering and packaging.
Global steel demand is expected to increase slightly by 0.5-1.5% in 2025, but the impact will vary across regions. Global demand fell by around 1% in 2024. China saw a 3.5% contraction due to lower demand in the real estate sector, while steel demand in Europe, Japan and the US fell by 2-3%. However, emerging economies such as India and Brazil offset the decline in global steel demand, with India’s demand increasing by 11% and Brazil’s by 5.6%.
While steel prices in India remain under pressure due to global price declines, the government’s 25% safeguard duty on steel imports could increase local prices by 4-6%, especially in the first half of 2025. The Steel Minister said that they have brought this duty forward due to concerns over cheap steel imports from China.
In 2024, hot rolled coil (HRC) prices in India fell by 9% and cold rolled coil (CRC) prices by 7%, with higher net imports weighing on local prices. However, lower coke prices have provided relief to steel margins; premium coke prices from Australia fell by 12%.
Production is expected to increase as new capacities come online, leading to an increase in supply. However, intense competition for market share among factories may limit price increases.
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