Concerns about inflation and recession in the USA continue to have an impact on asset prices.
US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, who made statements yesterday, stated that the recession risk may not be as strong as feared, and that their priority is to control inflation.
Fed Board Member Christopher Waller noted that inflation is very high and is unlikely to ease. Emphasizing the need to quickly become more restrictive in monetary policy, Waller noted that the Fed supported an interest rate hike of 75 basis points in its July meeting, and that it would probably favor a 50 basis point increase in its September meeting. Waller stated that despite the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, it is not clear that there will be a recession in the economy.
st. Louis Fed President James Bullard said he expects the US economy to continue growing this year. Bullard signaled that he was in favor of a 75 basis point rate hike at the July meeting.
With the increasing selling pressure in the bond markets after the Fed officials' statements, the US 10-year bond yield approached 3 percent, while the recession pricing in the swap markets decreased, albeit partially.
In the pricing in money markets, 75 basis points increase in the July meeting and 50 basis points increase in the September meeting are considered as certain.
On the other hand, the data in the employment report to be announced today is in the focus of investors.
The unemployment rate, which is at historically low levels, offers the Fed an opportunity to continue its aggressive hawkish policies in its fight against inflation.
While there are currently 11.3 million job vacancies in the US economy, recent macroeconomic data indicate that the employment market has started to slow down, albeit to a limited extent.
While the expansion in the labor market is expected to continue, according to the data to be announced today, it is estimated that the said expansion will slow down, albeit to a limited extent, compared to the previous months.
The fact that the Fed monitors non-farm employment very carefully in its monetary policy decisions increases the importance of the data, while the data to be announced is expected to increase the volatility in the markets.
Despite the selling trend in the bond markets, the dollar index continues to be at the highest level of the last 20 years with 107.1 after the inflation concerns and the increasing demand for dollars as a safe haven.
In addition to the assessments that the Fed is still holding the recession in the background, the fact that China's $220 billion package announcement for infrastructure expenditures is added supports the barrel price of Brent oil. The barrel price of Brent oil rose by 1.1 percent on the new day to $103.8.
Bitcoin, which gained 6 percent yesterday, is now finding buyers at 22 thousand dollars with an increase of about 2 percent, after carrying its rise to the new day.
With these developments, the S&P 500 index gained 1.5%, the Nasdaq index 2.28% and the Dow Jones index 1.12% in the New York stock market yesterday. Index futures contracts in the USA started the new day with a decrease.
While the stock markets in Europe followed a positive course yesterday, the euro/dollar parity, which fell to the lowest level of the last 20 years, continues to be in the focus of investors.
The euro/dollar parity, which fell to 1.0140, the lowest of the last 20 years, is currently at 1.0150, against the dollar, which maintains its strong position with the statements that the Fed may continue its hawkish policies aggressively.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that he resigned from the leadership of the ruling Conservative Party, but that he would continue as prime minister until a new leader is elected.
The minutes of the June monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), which was announced yesterday, revealed that the ECB Governing Council discussed the persistence of inflation for a while and a larger interest rate hike in July.
Minutes of the council members' assessments revealed that most members agreed to raise key interest rates by 25 percentage points at this month's monetary policy meeting amid high economic uncertainty.
The minutes revealed that some members advocated "keeping the door open" for a larger rate hike in July, considering that the ECB should not make an "unconditional commitment" to a 25 basis point increase.
Yesterday, with these developments, DAX 30 index gained 1.97 percent in Germany, FTSE 100 index gained 1.14 percent in England, CAC 40 index gained 1.60 percent in France and FTSE MIB 30 index gained 3.05 percent in Italy. . Index futures contracts in Europe started the new day with a mixed course.
While a buying-weighted course is followed in Asia parallel to the US stock markets, the Chinese stock market diverges negatively.
Despite China's announcement of a $220 billion spending package for infrastructure expenditures, the increasing new types of coronavirus (Kovid-19) cases in China continue to erode the upward movement.
The shooting attack of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe during a speech increased the volatility in the markets. While the Japanese stock market gave back most of its post-attack gains, uncertainties have intensified before the upper house parliamentary elections on Sunday.
According to the macroeconomic data announced in the region, the balance of payments in Japan gave a surplus of 128.4 billion yen, but failed to meet the expectations.
With these developments, the Nikkei 225 index gained 0.68 percent in Japan, Kospi index gained 0.90 percent in South Korea and the Hang Seng index gained 0.20 percent in Hong Kong, while Shanghai composite index gained 0 percent in China. 1 lost value.
While the BIST 100 index, which followed a buying-heavy course in the domestic market yesterday, finished the day at 2,425.56 points with an increase of 0.72 percent, the eyes were turned to the balance of payments data to be announced today.
Economists participating in the expectations survey of AA Finans expect the current account to have a deficit of 6 billion 15 million dollars in May.
On the other hand, markets will be closed in the afternoon today. In the stock markets, which will start the day with the opening session at 09.40, continuous auction transactions will be carried out between 10.00-12.30. Closing session, order collection and closing price transactions will be made between 12.30 and 12.40 hours.
In the Futures and Options Market (VIOP), trading will start at 09.30 today and the session will end at 12.40 for stock contracts and 12.45 for index and other contracts.
Dollar/TRY is trading at 17.2590 at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing at 17.2624 with an increase of 0.2 percent yesterday.
Analysts stated that today, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) Market Participants Survey, and the data in the employment report to be announced in the USA abroad and the wholesale stocks will be followed today, technically, the 2.460 and 2.500 levels in the BIST 100 index are in the resistance position and the 2.390 points are in the support position. reported that.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
10.00 Turkey, balance of payments in May
10.00 Turkey, CBRT Market Participants Survey
15.30 US, June employment report
17.00 US, May wholesale stocks
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