The surprise hawking of the European Central Bank (ECB) last week and the strong employment data announced in the USA continue to have an impact on the markets.
In the bond markets, where the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is priced to raise interest rates in 6 meetings this year, it is predicted that the Fed will increase interest rates by 150 basis points and the ECB by 40 basis points.
While the said pricing puts the verbal guidance of monetary policy officials in the focus of investors, the statements made by ECB President Christine Lagarde today are likely to increase the volatility in asset prices.
On the other hand, despite the negative comments of the Fed members regarding the 50 basis point rate hike last week, the pricing in the bond markets increased the uncertainty.
With these developments, it is observed that the risk appetite in global stock markets is low, while the continuation of the rise in oil prices indicates that the cost pressures on the economy may continue.
The price of Brent oil is trading at $92.9 per barrel, the highest level since October 2014, starting the eighth week of gains after seven weeks of upward trend.
The US 10-year bond yield is currently stabilizing at 1.91 percent after rising to 1.94% on Friday after the non-farm payrolls data, which far surpassed expectations.
On Friday, the S&P 500 index gained 0.52 percent and the Nasdaq index gained 1.58 percent in the New York stock market, while the Dow Jones index fell 0.06 percent. In the US, index futures contracts are mixed on the first trading day of the new week.
With the ECB faltering in Europe, the tension between Russia and Ukraine continues to affect asset prices. While awaiting the decisions to come out of the meeting between US President Joe Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan evaluated that "Russia could invade Ukraine at any moment".
With the selling pressure in the bond markets after the hawkish monetary policy in Europe, Germany's 10-year bond yield rose to 0.21%.
The euro/dollar parity, on the other hand, started the new week with a downward trend after five consecutive roses and is currently finding buyers at 1.1440.
On Friday, the DAX index in Germany fell by 1.75 percent, the FTSE 100 index in the UK by 0.17 percent, the CAC 40 index in France by 0.77 percent and the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy by 1.79 percent. European indices are positive in futures today.
While the Chinese markets, which were closed last week due to the New Year holiday in Asia, were reopened, it is seen that the Chinese stock market priced the rise in Asia-wide last week.
On the other hand, the expectations that the economy administration in China will be more sensitive to the markets in the regulation steps also support the risk appetite.
According to the macroeconomic data released in the region, the service sector Purchasing Managers (PMI) in China decreased to 51.4 and the composite PMI to 50.1. Leading indicators index in Japan, on the other hand, exceeded expectations and reached 104.3.
While the Nikkei 225 index decreased by 0.76 percent in Japan near the closing, the Kospi index in South Korea by 0.40 percent and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong by 0.17 percent, the Shanghai composite index in China increased by 2 percent.
Domestically, on the last trading day of last week, the BIST 100 index depreciated by 0.72 percent to 1,943.81 points, while stock and sector-based divergences continue due to company balance sheets that continue to be announced.
After closing at 13.5625 with a flat course on Friday, the Dollar/TRY is trading at 13.56 at the opening of the interbank market today.
Today, the treasury cash balance in the country and the ECB President Lagarde's speech abroad, industrial production in Germany and the investor confidence index in the Euro Zone will be followed.
Analysts said that technically, 1.930 and 1.890 levels in the BIST 100 index are in the support position and 1.990 points are in the resistance position.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
10.00 Germany, December industrial production
12.30 Eurozone, February investor confidence index
17.30 Turkey, January Treasury cash balance
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