Although the developments that emerged one after another around the world caused active days in the stock, bond and commodity markets, it was noteworthy that the optimism was maintained in the first trading day of the week due to the declining oil and metal prices in investor pricing.
This development was influenced by the continuation of hope for peace as the negotiation delegations of Russia and Ukraine agreed to hold the next meeting in Istanbul. On the other hand, the government's implementation of the shutdown measure by following a zero-tolerance policy in the face of increasing Kovid-19 cases in China has reduced the upward pressure on oil prices due to the war, with the expectations that demand will decrease.
With the macroeconomic data announced in the USA maintaining its strength, expectations that the central bank of the country will focus on combating high inflation and tightening its monetary policies more aggressively, this situation accelerated the exits from the bond markets.
With all these developments, the barrel price of Brent oil was stabilized at 108.2 dollars today, after falling by 8.4 percent to 106.7 dollars yesterday. The US 10-year bond yield is at 2.48%, after testing the highest level since May 2019 with 2.55%. Germany's 10-year bond yield reached its highest level since May 2018 with 0.63 percent, and Italy's 10-year bond yield with 2.18 percent since April 2020.
In Japan, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) intervened in the market today by buying bonds, as the 10-year bond interest rate continued to be close to the upper limit of the yield target with 0.25%. While the impact of the intervention was observed to be limited, the BOJ announced that it will purchase unlimited bonds tomorrow and Thursday, promising to keep its monetary policy extremely loose.
Despite the weakness in energy and banking stocks, the New York stock market showed a positive trend with the purchases of technology stocks led by Tesla. The Dow Jones index gained 0.27 percent, the S&P 500 index gained 0.71 percent and the Nasdaq index gained 1.31 percent. The dollar index is at 99.1 today, after seeing the highest level in about 3 weeks with 99.4 yesterday.
On the European side, initiatives to reduce dependency on Russian gas are at the center of the agenda. While the flow of news from the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine is expected to have an impact on the direction of the markets, verbal guidance on monetary policies remains important in line with inflationary concerns. While a mixed course was observed in the stock markets yesterday, the DAX 30 index in Germany rose by 0.78 percent and the CAC 40 index in France by 0.54 percent, while the FTSE 100 index in the UK decreased by 0.14 percent. The euro/dollar pair tested 1.10 levels today, after hitting the lowest level in nearly two weeks at 1.0945 yesterday.
On the Asian side, while the two-stage Kovid-19 test and curfew continued in Shanghai, China, the country's Huangpu region was also closed until April 1. On the Japanese side, along with the intervention in the bond market, the rise in the dollar/yen parity remains the focus of the agenda. Although the economy management had previously sent the message "weakness in the yen is for the benefit of our companies", today, "we are closely watching the movements in the exchange rate" as the parity maintains its highest level since August 2015, made a statement. With these developments, Shanghai composite index increased by 0.1 percent in China, Nikkei 225 index increased by 0.7 percent in Japan, Hang Seng index increased by 0.9 percent in Hong Kong and Kospi index increased by 0.3 percent in South Korea.
BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul, which followed a selling course in the domestic market yesterday, finished the day at 2,172.48 points with a 0.14 percent depreciation. Dollar/TRY, on the other hand, is traded at 14,8250 at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing at 14,8166 with a decrease of 0.1 percent yesterday.
Stating that the Russia-Ukraine war continues to be determinant on pricing on a global basis, analysts emphasized that the movements in the bond and commodity markets maintain their importance in shaping investor risk perception.
Stating that the statements of the US Central Bank and European Central Bank officials will be at the center of the markets today, the analysts said that the speech of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) Chairman Şahap Kavcıoğlu at the bank's general assembly meeting will be followed.
Analysts stated that the consumer confidence index in the USA, the number of job vacancies and housing sales in the USA and the consumer confidence index in Germany came to the fore in the data agenda.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows;
09.00 Germany, February retail sales
09.00 Germany, April consumer confidence index
14.00 Turkey, CBRT Ordinary General Assembly Meeting
14.00 Turkey, February banking sector indicators
16.00 US, January housing price index
17.00 US, March consumer confidence index
17.00 USA, JOLTS job vacancies in February
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