While recession concerns continue throughout the world, expectations for a narrowing of the policy area of central banks are increasing after the announced macroeconomic data.
Yesterday, the manufacturing industry and service sector Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data pointed to a slowdown in economic activity in many countries.
Manufacturing PMI was from 57 to 52.4 in the USA, from 54.6 to 54.3 in the UK, from 54.6 to 52 in the Eurozone and from 54.8 in Germany. While falling to 52, a similar decline was seen in the service sector PMI data.
While the data remains above 50 indicates that industrial production continues to expand, the decline in the data has strengthened the recession concerns.
On the other hand, the course of commodity prices is also noteworthy. The fact that metals such as copper and iron, which have an important place in production, have been moving in a downward trend for a while, also indicates that the wheels are slowing down around the world.
On the other hand, the decline in important foodstuffs such as wheat increased the hopes that the inflation pressure will decrease, albeit partially.
The expectation that these developments will lead the central banks to be softer in their tightening steps, which announced that the monetary policy will be shaped according to the macroeconomic data of the upcoming period, supported the stock markets.
On the other hand, yesterday, while continuing his presentation on the Monetary Policy Report to the US Congress, the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), Jerome Powell, said that the commitment to fight inflation is "unconditional".
The Fed also reported that the major banks it stress-tested continued to have strong capital levels that would allow them to continue lending to households and businesses during a severe recession.
While Fed officials continued their verbal guidance yesterday, Fed member Michelle Bowman stated that a 75 basis point increase in interest rates in July would be more appropriate, and then stated that she would support 50 basis points increases until the end of the year.
The downward trend in bond rates that started on Wednesday was also effective yesterday, while the 10-year bond yield of the USA decreased by about 7 basis points and stabilized at 3.10 percent.
With these developments, a buying weighted course was followed in the New York stock market yesterday, while the S&P 500 index gained 0.95 percent, the Nasdaq index gained 1.62 percent and the Dow Jones index gained 0.64 percent. Index futures contracts in the USA started the new day with a rise.
Along with the manufacturing industry and service sector PMI data, which fell more than expected in Europe, the increasing problems in Germany's energy supply security were effective in the decrease in risk appetite.
German Minister of Economy and Climate Protection Robert Habeck stated that they are in the middle of a "gas crisis" and that the "warning" level, which is the second stage of his country's 3-stage Gas Contingency Plan, has been activated.
Peter Kazimir, a member of the European Central Bank (ECB), stated in his statements yesterday that the bank could increase the policy rate by 200 basis points in the next 12 months, and stated that he saw an interest rate increase of 25 basis points in July and 50 basis points in September.
Yesterday, European stock markets followed a negative course, while the DAX 40 index was 1.76 percent in Germany, the FTSE 100 index was 0.97 percent in the UK, the CAC 40 index was 0.56 percent in France and the FTSE MIB 30 index was 0 percent in Italy. .80 depreciated. Index futures contracts in Europe started the new day with an increase.
On the Asian side, with the news that China's regulation steps in technology companies are coming to an end, the steps of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) to increase liquidity support the risk appetite in the region.
According to the inflation data announced in Japan, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.5 percent and the core CPI increased by 2.1 percent, in line with the expectations.
With these developments, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan gained 1.3 percent, the Shanghai composite index in China gained 0.6 percent, the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong gained 2 percent and the Kospi index in South Korea gained 2.5 percent.
Domestically, while the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) kept the policy rate unchanged at 14 percent, the BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul, which followed a sales-oriented course, closed the day with a decrease of 1.21 percent at 2,543.21 points.
After closing at 17.3557 with a flat course yesterday, Dollar/TRY is trading at 17.3610 level at the opening of the interbank market today.
Analysts stated that today, the real sector confidence index and capacity utilization in the country, retail sales abroad in the UK, Ifo business confidence indices in Germany and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in the USA and housing sales data will be followed. He noted that the verbal guidance of the officials is also in the focus of the investors.
Stating that the levels of 2.530 and 2.510 in the BIST 100 index technically are in the support position, the analysts said that the 2.590 points have become an important resistance.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
09.00 UK, May retail sales
10.00 Turkey, June real sector confidence index and capacity utilization rate
11.00 Germany, June Ifo business confidence indices
17.00 USA, June University of Michigan confidence index
17.00 US, May new home sales
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