The data agenda is expected to be effective in investor pricing, which has been shaped by the verbal guidance of central bank officials since the beginning of the week. Especially after the data in the US employment report released last week revealed a positive picture, the level of inflation in October, which is another basic indicator that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) bases on its monetary policy path, will determine the direction of the markets.
After the recent upward movement in oil prices and the rapid rise in ex-factory prices in China, it is evaluated that the data to be announced today will increase the pressures on policy makers to increase the interest rate, as the data to be announced indicate that high levels of inflation are maintained. On the other hand, it is stated that a weak inflation data may be insufficient to change the Fed's monetary policy path in an environment where supply problems and rising commodity prices continue.
Prior to these developments, the Producer Price Index (PPI), which was announced yesterday in the USA, followed a course in line with market expectations, increasing by 0.6 percent monthly and 8.6 percent annually.
In an environment where supply problems continued, a sales-heavy trend was observed in the New York stock market yesterday as producer prices pointed to the highest level in approximately 11 years on an annual basis, feeding concerns about inflation. The Dow Jones index fell 0.31 percent, the S&P 500 index fell 0.35 percent and the Nasdaq index fell 0.60 percent. The shares of the US electric car manufacturer Tesla fell by 12 percent yesterday after the company's Top Manager Elon Musk's survey on the sale of shares. The US 10-year bond yield rose to 1.46 percent today, after falling to 1.4180 percent yesterday, the lowest level since September 24. While the dollar index carried its decline for the third day in a row yesterday, closing just below the 94 mark, it rose above 94 again today. In the index futures contracts of the USA, it is seen that the new day started negative.
According to the data released yesterday on the European side, the European Economic Research Center (ZEW) Economic Confidence Index rose to 31.7 points in November, an increase of 9.4 points compared to the previous month. Thus, the index recorded an increase for the first time in 6 months. On the other hand, in September, exports in Germany decreased by 0.7 percent on an annual basis and carried their decline for the second month in a row, while imports increased by 0.1 percent. On the other hand, natural gas futures contracts, which saw more than 80 euros again as concerns about gas supply in Europe came to the agenda, fell to 77 euros after the Russian energy company Gazprom announced that it started to pump gas to five underground storage facilities in Europe for November.
The DAX index in Germany fell by 0.04 percent, the FTSE 100 index in the UK by 0.36 percent, the CAC 40 index in France by 0.06 percent and the MIB 30 index in Italy by 0.97 percent. The euro/dollar parity carried its rise to the 3rd day yesterday, seeing above 1.16, which analysts described as the critical level, and today it regressed to 1.1580 levels. Index futures contracts in Europe, on the other hand, are following a selling course today.
On the Asian side, the shares of Chinese Fantasia Holdings, whose operations were stopped on the Hong Kong stock exchange after it declared that it could not pay its due debts, depreciated by nearly 50 percent as the shares started to be traded again, put pressure on the share markets. On the other hand, inflation in China, which was 0.7 percent in September, reached its highest level in 13 months with 1.5 percent in October. With these developments, decreases exceeding 1 percent were recorded in the stock markets of China, Hong Kong and South Korea close to the closing, while the Nikkei 225 index in Japan decreased by 0.5 percent.
On the commodity side, the barrel price of Brent oil increased by 1.3 percent yesterday and closed at $ 84.3, and today it moved up to the 4th trading day and reached $ 84.9. The ounce price of gold is also trading at $1,826, with a decrease of 0.4 percent, after seeing its highest level since September 3, at $1,832 yesterday.
Domestically, the BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul gained 0.44 percent yesterday, bringing the closing record to 1,615.64 points and the highest level record to 1,631.45 points. Dollar/TL is at 9.74 levels at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing at 9.7318 with an increase of 0.5 percent yesterday.
Analysts stated that after the Fed took the first step in the scope of normalization in monetary policies, investors focused on clues about the way to increase interest rates, and said that the inflation data of the USA, which will be announced today, are important in this context.
Stating that inflation data will also be followed in Germany today, labor force statistics and foreign trade indices will come to the fore in the domestic market, analysts stated that the BIST 100 index is technically at the level of 1,640 resistance and 1,570 points as support.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
10.00 Turkey, unemployment rate in September
10.00 Germany, October CPI
16.30 the USA, October CPI
16.30 the USA, weekly jobless claims
18.00 the USA, September wholesale stocks
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