Expectations regarding the Fed's monetary policy continue to affect asset prices. Following the hawkish Fed minutes on Wednesday, the New York stock market, which moved in a downward trend yesterday, partially compensated for its losses towards the close with the verbal guidance of the Fed officials.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard stated that the interest rate hike could be made at the meeting in March, and emphasized that although he had previously stated that three rate hikes would be required in 2022, less rate hikes would be sufficient.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, on the other hand, noted that asset purchases are completely different from the issue of shrinking their balance sheets, emphasizing that she thinks it would be more appropriate for the Fed to leave the steps regarding the balance sheet until after the interest rate hike.
Analysts stated that the possibility that the Fed may begin to narrow its balance sheet at the same time with interest rate hikes increased the uncertainty in the markets, and noted that the explanations on the subject were effective in reducing volatility.
Noting that the expectations for the Fed's rate hike have continued to change since the beginning of the week, analysts said that before today's employment data, the markets priced a 20 basis point rate hike in March with an 80 percent probability.
Analysts stated that the non-farm employment, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings data in the employment report to be published today came to the fore due to the effect of the Fed's monetary policy, while the verbal guidance of the Fed officials was also placed in the focus of the investors.
While the prices in question supported the sales that have been effective in the bond market since the beginning of the week, yesterday the US 10-year bond yield was stabilized at 1.72 percent after rising to 1.75 percent, the highest level since April 2021.
The ounce price of gold, suppressed by the falconry Fed, is trading just above $1,790, which analysts highlighted as important support, after a two-day downward trend.
Although the losses continued in the New York stock market, it was observed that the losses were partially compensated by reaction purchases, while the S&P 500 index lost 0.10 percent, the Dow Jones index 0.47 percent and the Nasdaq index 0.13 percent. At the opening of the new day, index futures contracts in the USA are watching with buyers.
While the stock markets in Europe followed a sales-heavy trend in line with the US stock market yesterday, the ongoing intense data agenda continues to be in the focus of investors.
According to the announced macroeconomic data, yesterday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Germany exceeded expectations with an increase of 0.5 percent on a monthly basis and 5.1 percent on an annual basis, while industrial production in Germany and CPI data in the Euro Zone will be followed today.
Yesterday, the FTSE 100 index in the UK lost 0.88 percent, the DAX index in Germany by 1.35 percent, the CAC 40 index in France by 1.72 percent and the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy by 1.8 percent. European indices are positive in futures today.
Although the markets in Asia started the day with buyers, Japan diverged negatively in the following hours.
According to the macroeconomic data released today, Tokyo CPI exceeded expectations with an annual increase of 0.8 percent.
With these developments, Nikkei 225 index depreciated by 0.12 percent in Japan close to the closing, Shanghai composite index was 0.30 percent in China, Hang Seng index was 1.37 percent in Hong Kong and Kospi index was 1 percent in South Korea. 03 rose.
Today, intense data agenda will be followed, mainly treasury cash realizations in the country, industrial production in Germany, CPI in the Euro Zone and non-farm employment in the USA abroad.
Analysts said that technically, 1.960 and 1.930 levels in the BIST 100 index are in the support position and 2.050 points are in the resistance position.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
10.00 Germany, November industrial production and foreign trade balance
13.00 Euro Zone, November retail sales
13.00 Euro Zone, December CPI and consumer confidence index
16.30 US, December nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings
17.30 Turkey, December Treasury cash realizations
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