In the stock markets, which was supported by the third quarter profits of companies that were generally above expectations last week, the concerns about the new type of coronavirus (Kovid-19) epidemic, the third quarter growth data in the USA were below the forecasts and the annual inflation in Europe was the highest in the last 13 years. level stood out as developments that eroded the risk appetite.
Last week, when the actions of central banks were also closely followed, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced that interest rates and the total size of the Pandemic Emergency Asset Purchase Program (PEPP) did not change, while bond purchases could be at a lower pace compared to the second and third quarters of the year. ECB President Christine Lagarde, in her statement after the meeting, stated that they predicted that inflation will increase further in the near term, but will decrease next year, and took her place among the central bank officials who supported the view that "the rise in inflation is temporary".
Analysts stated that the theme of the main risks in the post-Kovid-19 global economy within the framework of "high inflation", "insufficient recovery" and "the future of monetary policies" has not changed, and in this context, the results of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting to be held on Wednesday and the Fed President Jerome Powell's direction would be important, he said.
Analysts said that the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to increase the policy rate by 15 basis points to 0.25 percent at the meeting to be held on Thursday this week. He emphasized that the data to be announced, especially industrial production, will be closely followed in terms of shaping the expectations.
While the USA 10-year bond yields fell from 1.67% to 1.52%, indices in the New York stock market closed a record. On Friday, the S&P 500 index gained 0.19 percent, the Nasdaq index gained 0.33 percent and the Dow Jones index gained 0.25 percent. The weekly value gains of the indices were realized as 1.33 percent, 2.71 percent and 0.40 percent, respectively. After testing the level of 94.3 on Friday, the dollar index closed the week at 94.1 with an increase of 0.6 percent, and is at 94.2 today. It is noteworthy that the index futures contracts of the USA started the new week with buyers.
On the European side, despite the ECB's meeting decisions described as "pigeons" last week, the euro/dollar parity declined by 0.7 percent and closed at 1.1563, as a result of the rapid rise in inflation combined with the increasing global dollar demand. On the equity markets front, a buying-weighted course was observed, on a weekly basis the DAX index was 0.94 percent in Germany, the FTSE 100 index was 0.46 percent in the UK, the CAC 40 index was 1.44 percent in France and the MIB 30 index in Italy. It gained 1.14%. In the new week, the euro continues its decline against the dollar, trading at 1.1548. Index futures contracts in Europe, on the other hand, follow a buying trend.
While the increase in Kovid-19 cases in Asia during the past week and the re-activation of restrictions in some regions in parallel with this decreased risk appetite, the main reason for the sales-oriented course of the stock markets was the tension between the USA and China.
According to the data released today, Asian stock markets started the new week positively after the manufacturing industry PMI increased by 1.7 points to 53.2 in Japan and to 50.6 with an increase of 0.6 points in China. Declining political uncertainties with the Liberal Democrat Party (LDP) winning the ordinary general elections for the House of Representatives in Japan also supported the positive course. With these developments, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan increased by 2.4 percent and the Shanghai composite index in China was watching with an increase of 0.1 percent.
On the commodity side, in parallel with the rise in the dollar index last week, the ounce price of gold depreciated by 0.5 percent and closed at $ 1,783.4, and the barrel price of Brent oil decreased by 1.7 percent and closed at $ 83.5, it is seen that the transactions in the new week started close to flat.
Analysts stated that this week, the intense news and data agenda will be followed, especially the inflation, export figures and Treasury cash balance in the country, and the Fed and BoE's interest rate decision abroad. Analysts said that today, the global manufacturing industry PMI data will be monitored, and technically, the 1.530-1.550 band is the resistance zone and the 1.480 support level in the BIST 100 index.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
10.00 Turkey, October ISO manufacturing industry PMI
11.55 Germany, October manufacturing PMI
12.00 Eurozone, October manufacturing PMI
12.30 UK, October manufacturing PMI
17.00 USA, September construction expenditures
17.00 US, October ISM manufacturing PMI
17.45 US, October manufacturing PMI
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