Highlighting that China has long been accustomed to protectionist measures, Uğursal stated that the recent tariff policies under Trump’s administration in the U.S. are not a major concern for China.
Uğursal noted that China's steel exports could fall below 100 million tons in 2025, which would have significant global implications. He pointed out that domestic demand is expected to decline by approximately 1.5%, primarily due to the ongoing struggles in China’s real estate sector, which has yet to fully recover. The sector’s steel consumption is expected to decrease by an additional 20 million tons in 2025.
However, Uğursal highlighted a more positive outlook for the manufacturing sector, particularly in electric vehicle production, which is becoming a major advantage for China. Steel consumption in the automotive sector is expected to rise by 4% in 2025, while the home appliance sector is projected to see an 8.4% increase.
China’s Changing Position in the Global Market
Uğursal pointed out that China’s steel exports reached 110 million tons in 2024, impacting global markets. However, this figure could drop below 100 million tons in 2025 due to increasing protectionist measures in Southeast Asia and South America. He also emphasized that many of the new production capacities in these regions are being developed by Chinese investors, effectively shifting China’s steel exports to local production.
Regarding prices, Uğursal predicted a slight downward trend in the coming period. Reports of China reducing production capacity, along with an increase in global iron ore production, could push iron ore prices down from $100 to around $90 per ton. He recalled that steel prices declined by 4% in 2024 and suggested that a 3% decrease might be reasonable for 2025.
Lastly, Uğursal mentioned that China is entering a new phase of steel production by increasing scrap usage. The country aims to control 80% of its steel capacity through recycling projects. However, this transition is expected to increase steel production costs by approximately $60–70 per ton.
Uğursal concluded by stating that a short-term recovery in China’s steel industry is unlikely, but the country will remain competitive and continue to influence global markets.
You can watch Emrah Uğursal's full speech with English subtitles by clicking here:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CrBA9CBAO_4
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