Despite the increasing risks on inflation and economic activity in global markets, a mixed course was followed by investors' focus on company-based news flow. Intensive data agenda, especially growth, will be followed.
Recent developments that increase risks on global inflation and growth, especially the Russia-Ukraine war, the new type of coronavirus (Kovid-19) epidemic in China and the high interest rate environment prepared under the leadership of the US Central Bank (Fed), are forcing investors to pricing.
While this situation causes volatility to remain high on the side of the stock markets, it is seen that the effort to balance comes to the fore with the announced balance sheets and company news.
After the better-than-expected company profitability yesterday, Microsoft's shares gained more than 5 percent, while Visa's shares rose 7 percent. Shares of Google's parent company, Alphabet, fell more than 3 percent, with data that fell short of expectations. On the other hand, Boeing's shares, which announced a loss of $ 1.2 billion in the first quarter, decreased by close to 8 percent.
On the other hand, after the start of the collective Kovid-19 test program in Beijing, China, where city closures continue, a relative decrease in the number of cases was recorded. It is stated that the application will be implemented in Hangzhou, which is known as the activity center of important companies as of today, while the oil prices decreased for the second day due to the ongoing concerns regarding the demand from China. The barrel price of Brent oil fell below 103 dollars today, after falling by 0.4 percent yesterday.
With these developments, a mixed course was observed in the New York stock market yesterday. While the Dow Jones index increased by 0.19 percent and the S&P 500 index increased by 0.21 percent, the Nasdaq index closed the day just below its previous close. The dollar index continued its upward movement at 103.4, the highest level since January 2017. The US 10-year bond yield rose from 2.73 percent yesterday to over 2.83%.
On the European side, natural gas futures in the Netherlands stabilized at 110 euros after rising to as much as 127 euros, with Russia halting gas flows to Bulgaria and Poland. In Europe, where inflationary pressures led by energy prices and concerns about economic activity continue, warnings against the possibility of recession were also at the top of the agenda as an important factor limiting the stock markets.
On the other hand, in the European stock markets, where the announced balance sheet results were followed, an increase was experienced with the support of the retreat in commodity prices. The FTSE 100 index gained 0.53 percent in the UK, the DAX 30 index gained 0.27 percent in Germany and the CAC 40 index gained 0.48 percent in France. Euro/dollar parity reached its lowest level in 5 years at 1.05 with the strengthening of the dollar.
On the Asian side, the spread of the collective Kovid-19 test application, as well as the statements of support for the economy by the People's Bank of China and the authorities, were welcomed in the markets, while the Bank of Japan (BoJ) promised to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy. On the other hand, the Bank increased its inflation expectation for the 2022 fiscal year, which will end in March 2023, from 1.1 percent to 1.9 percent, and reduced its growth forecast from 3.8 percent to 2.9 percent. With these developments, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose by 1.7 percent and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong rose by 0.3 percent, close to the closing. In China, the Shanghai composite index lost 0.5 percent.
Domestically, the BIST 100 index, which followed a fluctuating course yesterday, rose with the purchases that increased its effect close to the closing, and closed the day at 2,451.43 points with an increase of 1.37 percent. Dollar/TL is traded at 14,8240 at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing at 14,8086 with an increase of 0.06 percent yesterday.
Analysts stated that risk appetite is low and volatility is high in global markets due to concerns that central banks will tighten their monetary policies faster than expected and growing concerns about growth, and that the upward trend in dollar index and bond yields has become the focus of the agenda.
Analysts noted that today, in addition to the Inflation Report to be announced by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), the economic confidence index in the country, growth in the USA abroad, inflation in Germany, consumer confidence index in the Euro Zone will be followed. He said that the level of 2.370 in the 100 index is in the position of support and 2,490 points in the resistance position.
In the CBRT's first Inflation Report of the year, it was predicted that inflation would be between 18.6 percent and 27.8 percent at the end of 2022, with a midpoint of 23.2 percent.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
10.00 Turkey, April economic confidence index
10.30 Turkey, Inflation Report 2022-II Information Meeting
12.00 Eurozone, April consumer confidence index
14.30 Turkey, weekly money and bank statistics
15.00 Germany, April inflation
15.30 US, first quarter growth
15.30 US, first quarter personal consumption expenditures
15.30 US, weekly jobless claims
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