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Denton: US tariffs won't lead to global trade war

John Denton, Secretary General of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), stated that the new tariffs announced by the US alone do not have the potential to cause a global trade war, but there are serious uncertainties about how other countries will react to these policies.

Denton: US tariffs won't lead to global trade war

Denton stated that US President Donald Trump has decided to impose tariffs in order to maintain his country's economic growth, but no clear explanation has been made about some of the details of the tariffs. Stating that there are question marks about how effective tariffs will be, especially in combating problems such as fentanyl, Denton emphasized that tariffs are not only a tool to strengthen the US economy, but also a geopolitical strategy. 

Reminding that the US share in global trade is 13 percent, Denton said that a global trade war alone is out of the question. However, he said that the responses of other countries to these tariffs will be an important determining factor, “The US alone will not cause a global trade war, but how other countries react, the situation may be different.” Drawing a comparison with the 'Great Depression' of the 1930s, Denton said that the impact of protectionist policies on the world economy at that time depended on the global economic structure at that time, but that the global economy today has a much different structure. 

Denton pointed out that tariffs will not provide the US with an advantage in its economic competition with China. “In the great US economic competition with China, tariffs cannot provide that edge. Such an edge can only be achieved through an innovative and productive economic model,” he said, adding that tariffs can only deepen economic problems in the long run. He also emphasized that it is understandable that Trump aims to bring back American domestic production, but these policies could put inflationary pressures on the US economy and disrupt supply chains. 

Referring to the US decision to impose tariffs on all countries in the steel and aluminum sectors, Denton said that the economic consequences of the reactions to these tariffs should be well calculated. Stating that the European Commission is prepared for possible retaliation, Denton said: “We understand that there needs to be a political response, but there are other ways of dealing with this. We need to be clear that this approach is power-based,” Denton said. 

Denton stated that one of the biggest challenges faced by the European Union (EU) in this situation is the lack of competitive capabilities. Stating that the EU has the opportunity to increase its competitiveness while continuing to deal with current economic and political issues, Denton emphasized the importance of the EU's ability to remain united. “The EU needs to pursue reforms that will make it more competitive. This should be seen as an opportunity,” he said. 

Regarding Türkiye, Denton highlighted the risks that the US tariffs could pose for Türkiye. “I think Türkiye needs to be prepared and not ignore the potential impact of US tariffs,” he said. However, Denton noted that Türkiye 's strong private sector and innovative approach offer a significant advantage in this global trade war. Citing success stories in the construction and services sectors, Denton said Türkiye 's strategic location in the Middle East and other regions can play a critical role in creating economic opportunities. 

Finally, Denton said that Türkiye has made serious efforts in market diversification and that this strategy is a model for Canada to emulate. He said that the Turkish business world's efforts to adapt to the dynamics of global trade is a lesson for other countries like Canada. 

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