Following the decision of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye to keep interest rates unchanged yesterday, some institutions, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, shared their expectations in their reports.
Goldman Sachs
Stating that the CBRT kept the interest rate unchanged at 50 percent in line with their expectations, the analysts of the institution said, "As the slowdown in economic activity deepens in the 3rd quarter of the year, we expect inflation expectations to fall rapidly. We anticipate that headline inflation will fall to 36 percent at the end of the year. We maintain our expectation that the first interest rate cut will be realized at the end of the 3rd quarter."
Barclays
In the report, which stated that the CBRT maintained its hawkish tone in its statement, the possibility of an early cut was pointed out and the following statements were made;
"CBRT kept the policy rate at 50 percent as expected. We expect interest rates to remain at this level until January 2025, but if the disinflation process is stronger than we expect, we may see an early cut in the last quarter of 2024."
Morgan Stanley
"The Bank's decision to keep rates unchanged and the hawkish tone of communication support our expectation of a tight monetary policy stance for an extended period. We expect the policy rate to remain at this level until the end of the year and rate cuts to start in the first quarter of 2025."
JPMorgan
"CBRT left the interest rate at 50 percent as expected, while maintaining its hawkish rhetoric that it is ready to tighten if there are upside risks to inflation.
We maintain our policy rate expectation for end-2024 at 45 percent. We expect a rate cut from the CBRT in November and December."
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