George Matta, AISU Economic Committee Chairman and Ez Steel CMO, made an important presentation at the 17th Arab Steel Summit. In the presentation, the economic situation of the Middle East and developments in the steel market were discussed.
Middle East Economic Outlook
Economic growth in the Middle East slowed from 5.8 per cent in 2022 to 0.3 per cent in 2023 due to oil production disruptions and regional conflicts. Growth is expected to be 2.8 per cent in 2024 and 4.5 per cent in 2025. However, armed conflicts have the potential to create lasting economic impacts.
GCC Economic Outlook
Gulf economies reduced growth from 7.1 per cent in 2022 to 2.5 per cent in 2023. Growth is forecast at 2.8 per cent in 2024 and 4.7 per cent in 2025. This growth will be supported by increased oil production and infrastructure projects.
Steel Market Expectations
In 2024, gross steel production is expected to increase from 19.6 million tonnes to 198 million tonnes. Finished steel consumption is projected to increase by 4% to 19.7 million tonnes. Infrastructure projects in Saudi Arabia and the UAE will support this demand.
The Saudi economy is expected to grow by 2.81 per cent in 2024 and 6.0 per cent in 2025. Steel consumption in Saudi Arabia will increase from 9.1 million tonnes to 9.8 million tonnes, benefiting from major projects. Steel consumption in the UAE is also expected to increase by 4%.
Eastern Mediterranean Economic Outlook
The Eastern Mediterranean region is negatively affected by the Gaza conflict and instability. Iraq and Jordan are showing modest growth, while Syria, Lebanon and Yemen are facing serious difficulties due to wars. Steel consumption is expected to increase by 5% to 8.4 million tonnes in 2024.
Conclusion and Challenges
Economic growth in the MENA region is expected to recover despite challenges such as regional conflicts and high inflation. The Arab region remains a net importer of 5 million tonnes of steel. The steel industry faces challenges such as raw material price fluctuations and global trade barriers.
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