The volatility in asset prices is increasing due to possible changes in monetary policies, political developments and the balance sheet period around the world.
In a report in The Wall Street Journal in the US on Friday, it was stated that some Fed officials are beginning to signal their intention both to slow the pace of rate hikes soon and to halt rate hikes early next year.
The statements of San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, one of the Fed officials who continued their verbal guidance, that the economy could be in trouble if the hawkish steps in the monetary policy continued and that the Fed should take this situation into account also affected the expectations in the money markets.
Although it is considered certain that the Fed will increase interest rates by 75 basis points at the next meeting's meeting in the money markets following these developments, the expectations for a 50 basis point increase in interest rates at the December meeting rose to 52 percent. Before Daly's statements, it was predicted that the Fed would raise interest rates by 75 basis points with an 82 percent probability in December.
After the signs of a slowdown in the monetary policy, it was observed that the effect of purchases increased in the bond markets, which followed a sales-heavy course for 12 weeks.
The US 10-year and 5-year bond yields fell about 20 basis points below their peaks after testing their highest levels since 2007 on Friday.
In the balance sheet season, a very busy week is entered. The balance sheets to be announced by major companies such as Apple, Microsoft, Exxon Mobil, Ford Motor, Airbus, Alphabet, Amazon, Boeing, HSBC, Shell and Intel are expected to increase the volatility in the stock markets this week.
The barrel price of Brent oil started the new week at $90.7 with a 1 percent decrease, while the price of an ounce of gold was traded at $1,656 with a decrease of 0.1 percent.
On Friday, the New York stock market followed a buying-heavy course, while the S&P 500 index gained 2.37 percent, the Nasdaq index gained 2.31 percent and the Dow Jones index gained 2.47 percent. Index futures contracts in the USA started the new week with a rise.
On the European side, while the eyes are turned to the monetary policy decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB) this week, the political developments in the UK are also closely followed.
While it is considered certain that the ECB will increase policy rates by 75 basis points at the meeting to be held on Thursday, guidance on how long the bank will continue these steps is important.
While it is predicted that the ECB will raise interest rates by 75 basis points in the money markets in December, ECB President Christine Lagarde's verbal guidance on the future of monetary policy after the meeting is expected to have an impact on the expectations.
After the resignation of Liz Truss in England, the race for Prime Minister started again. Former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced yesterday that he will not be a candidate in the name of national interests, despite having enough support, it is stated that the possibility of former Finance Minister Rishi Sunak becoming British Prime Minister is getting stronger.
On Friday, the DAX 40 index in Germany decreased by 0.29 percent, the CAC 40 index in France by 0.85 percent and the FTSE MIB index in Italy decreased by 0.62 percent, while the FTSE 100 index in the UK increased by 0.37 percent. Index futures contracts in Europe started the new week with a buying weighted course.
While Asian stock markets started the new week with a mixed course, developments in China were influential in the said course.
The Communist Party (CCP), which will rule the country in the next 5 years in China, determined its governing bodies after its 20th National Congress this week.
President Xi Jinping has been elected as the CCP's General Secretary for the third time, becoming the first leader to hold the party leadership for more than two terms since the founder of the People's Republic of China, Mao Zidong.
While the concern that appointments within the party might increase political pressure, especially in Hong Kong, came to the fore, it is seen that the selling pressure in the Hong Kong stock market deepened.
On the Japanese side, while the monetary policy decisions of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are placed in the focus of investors on Friday this week, it is expected that the bank will not change the interest rates in pricing in the money markets.
On Friday, the dollar/yen parity, which exceeded the psychological threshold of 150 and reached the highest level of the last 32 years, was intervened by the BOJ. The parity, which declined to 148.9 after the intervention of the bank, remains flat at the opening of the new week.
On the other hand, the growth data that was expected to be announced last week in China were also announced. Accordingly, the Chinese economy grew by 3.9 percent annually and quarterly in the third quarter of the year, surpassing expectations. While industrial production in the country increased by 6.3 percent in September, exceeding the projections, retail sales increased by 2.5 percent in the same period, but remained below the forecasts.
According to other macroeconomic data announced in the region, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the manufacturing industry and services sector in Japan was 50.7 and 53, respectively.
With these developments, the Nikkei 225 index increased by 0.5 percent in Japan and the Kospi index in South Korea by 0.9 percent, while the Shanghai composite index in China decreased by 1.5 percent and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong decreased by 5.7 percent. .
Domestically, the BIST 100 index increased by 0.87 percent on Friday, closing the highest level of all time with 3,934.63 points, and brought its highest level record to 3,952.22 points.
On the other hand, Dollar/TL is traded at 18,5850 at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing just above the previous closing level with 18.5956 on Friday.
Analysts stated that today, the financial services confidence index in the country and the leading manufacturing industry and service sector PMI data to be announced abroad will be followed, and technically, 3.950 and 4000 levels in the BIST 100 index are in the position of resistance, and 3.900 and 3.840 points are in the support position.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
10.00 Turkey, October financial services confidence index
10.30 Germany, October manufacturing and service sector PMI
11.00 Eurozone, October manufacturing and services PMI
11.30 UK, October manufacturing and services PMI
16.45 US, October manufacturing and services PMI
Comments
No comment yet.