The risk appetite increased with the lower-than-expected inflation data in the USA, while the hawkish statements of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials caused fluctuations in the markets.
Speaking on a television channel at the weekend, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stated that they should avoid the mistakes made in the 1970s and that the Fed should continue to increase interest rates until inflation is brought under control.
With the aforementioned explanations in the pricing in money markets, the uncertainty about the size of the step the Fed will take at its September meeting has increased. Accordingly, while it is estimated that the Fed will increase interest rates by 50 basis points with a probability of 54 percent, the probability of a 75 basis point increase in interest rates is at the level of 46 percent.
The statements of Fed officials this week and the macroeconomic data to be announced in the US, especially retail sales, are expected to have an impact on the direction of the markets.
With these developments, the S&P 500 index rose by 1.73 percent, the Nasdaq index by 2.09 percent and the Dow Jones index by 1.27 percent in the New York stock market on Friday. Index futures contracts in the USA started the new week with a limited decline.
On the European side, while the stock markets followed a buying-heavy course in line with the New York stock market last week, the intense data agenda, especially the 2nd quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which will be announced on Wednesday in the Euro Zone, has been in the focus of investors.
In the data to be announced in the region, the signs of the course of inflation are expected to have an impact on asset prices, while developments regarding the energy supply crisis are expected to be followed closely.
The euro/dollar parity, which gained value with the expectation that the Fed might abandon its ultra-hawkish policies last week, started the new week at 1.0250 with a decrease of 0.1 percent.
On Friday, the FTSE 100 index in the UK gained 0.47 percent, the DAX 40 index in Germany by 0.74 percent, the CAC 40 index in France by 0.14 percent and the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy gained 0.49 percent. In Europe, where the Italian markets are closed for a holiday today, index futures contracts started the new week with a mixed outlook.
On the first day of the week, a fluctuating course is observed in Asian stock markets with intense news and data flow.
Retail sales increased by 2.7 percent and industrial production by 3.8 percent year-on-year in China, but fell short of expectations.
Although this situation strengthened the risk perception in the region, the Chinese stock market managed to compensate for its losses to a large extent after the People's Bank of China (PBoC) reduced the 1-year borrowing rate from 2.85 percent to 2.75 percent despite the recession risk.
According to the data announced in Japan, the country's economy grew by 2.2 percent on an annual basis and by 0.5 percent on a quarterly basis in the second quarter, falling short of market projections.
With these developments, Nikkei 225 index gained 1.14 percent in Japan close to the closing, while Hang Seng index depreciated by 0.2 percent in Hong Kong. Shanghai composite index in China is flat.
BIST 100 index, which improved its highest level record in the country on Friday to 2,896.67 points, declined with profit sales from these levels and closed the day at 2,864.25 points, 0.15 percent below its previous closing.
While the monetary policy decisions of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) are placed in the focus of investors this week, stock and sector-based volatility is expected to continue in the last week's balance sheet season.
After closing at 17.9363 with a decrease of 0.06 percent on Friday, the Dollar/TRY is trading at 17.9520 at the opening of the interbank market today.
Analysts stated that the data agenda is calm today and said that technically, 2.880 and 2.900 levels in the BIST 100 index are in the position of resistance and 2.830 points are in the support position.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
10.00 Turkey, 2nd quarter workforce statistics
11.00 Turkey, June budget balance
15.30 US, August New York Fed manufacturing index
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