The developments regarding the Russia-Ukraine war and the mutual sanctions announced in this context continue to be the main factors shaping market pricing.
While the United Nations General Assembly removed Russia from the Geneva-based Human Rights Council, the US Senate approved the bill that would suspend normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus.
With the meeting minutes of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced on Wednesday and the verbal guidance of the officials, the expectations that a 50 basis point interest rate increase will be made at the May meeting and that the monthly 95 billion dollar balance sheet reduction process will start strengthened.
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who previously argued that the bank should increase interest rates by half a point, although they made "dove" assessments by trying to calm the movement in the market, the 10-year bond yield of the USA was 2.67 percent in March 2019. Tested the highest level since The dollar index, on the other hand, continued its upward trend since the beginning of the month, reaching the peak of almost 2 years with 99.9.
On the commodity side, while supply-side pressures continue due to the concerns arising from the Russia-Ukraine war, the decline is seen due to the countries' release of strategic oil reserves and the strengthening of the dollar. After the USA and the International Energy Agency, Japan announced that it would offer 15 million barrels of emergency oil reserves, and with these developments, the barrel price of Brent oil saw below $100 for the first time in 3 weeks.
With these developments, the indexes, which started the day with a decline in the New York stock market yesterday, recovered after the weekly unemployment applications in the USA decreased to 166,000, the biggest decline in 53 years. The Dow Jones index rose 0.25 percent, the Nasdaq technology index rose 0.06 percent and the S&P 500 index rose 0.43 percent. On the other hand, US index futures contracts started the new day with a limited rise.
Geopolitical risks, inflationary concerns and developments in the energy market in Europe remain at the center of the agenda. In this context, the meeting minutes of the European Central Bank (ECB), which was followed closely yesterday, revealed that the members were concerned about "stagflation" due to the Ukraine war. In the minutes, which pointed to the differences of opinion, it was noteworthy that the majority of the members stated that the current high inflation level and its persistence required urgent additional steps towards the normalization of monetary policy.
After the minutes, the expectations that the ECB will end its asset purchases in the summer period and that it will increase interest rates as of the third quarter have increased. With these developments, the DAX index in Germany fell by 0.52 percent, the FTSE 100 index in the UK by 0.57 percent and the CAC 40 index in France by 0.47 percent. Euro/dollar parity continued to decline with the strengthening of the dollar and fell to a one-month low at 1.0885. Index futures contracts in Europe are slightly overbought today.
On the Asian side, the increasing number of new types of coronavirus (Kovid-19) cases continues to be the main factor driving stock market pricing. According to the data released today, in Japan, which differs from the rest of the world in terms of monetary policy and the course of inflation, the foreign trade deficit exceeded expectations with 774.9 billion yen in February. While the discussions on the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan continued in the country, the views that the bank is likely to adjust its monetary policy in July due to the concerns about the weak yen strengthened.
On the equity markets side, the new day started with a mixed course, while the Shanghai composite index in China increased by 0.5 percent, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan increased by 0.2 percent, and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong decreased by 0.2 percent. .
Domestically, the BIST 100 index, which diverged positively from global markets in Borsa Istanbul yesterday, completed the day with a 1.24 percent value gain, bringing the closing record to 2,345.20 points. Dollar/TL, on the other hand, is trading at 14.75 levels at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing at 14.7389 with an increase of 0.2 percent yesterday.
Analysts said that the developments regarding the Russia-Ukraine war will be followed closely, and that the new sanctions announced continue to feed inflationary concerns over energy and food prices, as the problems regarding supply centers continue.
Emphasizing that the hawkish stance of the central banks also increased the pressure on the bond market, analysts reported that this situation also reduced the risk appetite in the stock markets.
Analysts stated that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) market participants survey in the country and wholesale stocks in the USA abroad stand out on the data agenda today, noting that, technically, 2,290 points in the BIST 100 index are support and 2,350 and 2,400 levels are resistance. .
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
10.00 Turkey, April Central Bank Market Participants Survey
10.00 Turkey, real return rates of financial investment instruments in March
10.00 Turkey, second quarter foreign trade expectation survey
17.00 US, February wholesale and stocks
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