Although the devastating effects of the new type of coronavirus (Kovid-19) epidemic have not been completely overcome, in the recent period when the economic recovery started to reflect on the announced data, the Russia-Ukraine war and the increasingly harsh sanctions in this context destabilized the markets again.
While the effects of the war and consequent sanctions continued, rising commodity prices, especially oil and wheat, increased the concerns stemming from inflation, which is the biggest test of the post-pandemic central banks and world countries.
While this situation brought up the uncertainties regarding the transition process of central banks to tight monetary policies, it became certain that the first interest rate hike would be made at this month's meeting, after the guidance made by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials last week. On the other hand, the views that the course of the war may change the Fed's strategy for the coming months, which was previously thought to follow an aggressive path in interest rate hikes, gained weight.
At this point, the barrel price of Brent oil, which tested above $ 118 with an increase of almost 25 percent last week, increased by 9.5 percent today, the highest in the last 13.5 years, after the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that they were discussing with their European allies to stop oil imports from Russia. It is trading at its high of $128.3. The ounce price of gold continued to rise as investors moved towards safe havens and tested $2,000 for the first time since August 2020 in the Asian session. In the bond market, on the other hand, interest rates continued to trend downwards with increasing demand, while the US 10-year bond yields fell below 1.68%, the lowest level of the last 2 months.
On the other hand, while wheat prices increased by 7 percent to 13 dollars in the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, prices of many commodities, especially corn, palladium, nickel and iron, continue to trend upwards.
It was noteworthy that the new day started negatively on the equity markets side, due to the decreasing risk appetite. While the Asian stock markets have dropped more than 3 percent, the US and European index futures contracts are watching with an average loss of 1.5 percent.
Looking at last week's closings, the Dow Jones index fell 0.53 percent, S&P 500 index 0.79 percent and Nasdaq index lost 1.66 percent on Friday in the New York stock market. The weekly depreciation of indices was realized as 1.7 percent on average. After completing the fourth week in a row with a rise, the dollar index started the new week with a gain in value and reached its highest level since May 2020 with 99.2.
On the European side, natural gas futures contracts traded in the Netherlands exceeded 200 euros for the first time in their history, as Western countries, which are heavily dependent on Russia in energy, began to impose mutual sanctions in this area as well. Last Friday, the FTSE 100 index depreciated by 3.20 percent in the UK, the DAX 30 index in Germany by 4.41 percent and the CAC 40 index in France by 4.97 percent, while the euro/dollar parity decreased by 0.5 percent to 1, It is located at 0880 levels.
On the Asian side, while rising commodity prices create selling pressure on food and energy sector shares, internal dynamics such as debt roll-over problems in China and inflation in Japan, which are in contrast to the rest of the world, continue to exist. According to the data released today, the foreign trade surplus in China exceeded the expectations with 116 billion dollars, while the Shanghai composite index was 1.9 percent in China, the Nikkei 225 index was 3.3 percent in Japan, and the Hang Seng index was 3 percent in Hong Kong. .4 and India's Sensex index is down 3.2 percent.
BIST 100 index, which followed a sales-weighted course with the decreasing risk appetite in parallel with global developments in Borsa Istanbul last week, closed on Friday at 1,990.75 points with a 1.61% depreciation. Dollar/TL is traded at 14.2770 at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing at 14.2153 with an increase of 3 percent last week.
Analysts stated that the course of the Russia-Ukraine war and the sanctions announced in this context will be determinant in inflation, the most important fragility of the global economy, and said that the developments on the subject will be closely followed in terms of the course of monetary policies.
In this context, analysts emphasized that the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision will be in the focus of investors, as well as the statements of the Fed officials in the new week, and noted that the inflation data to be announced in China, Germany and the USA are also important.
Analysts stated that the data agenda is weak today and that factory orders will be followed in Germany, and that technically, 1.950 and 1.890 levels in the BIST 100 index are in the position of support and 2.040 points in the resistance position.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
10.00 Germany, January factory orders
17.30 Turkey, February treasury cash realizations
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