While investors' sensitivity to all kinds of data and developments that shape their inflation and growth-oriented expectations continues, the global risk appetite has decreased before the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) data of the USA , which will be announced today.
Inflation in the country reached the peak of 41 years with 8.5 percent in March, and decreased to 8.3 percent in April. The May inflation data of the USA, where investors will question whether the decline in inflation is permanent, is expected to be 8.3 percent. It is predicted that the above-expected data will strengthen the views that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will carry out the tightening process more aggressively, which may cause the selling pressure in the stock markets to continue.
In her statement yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that her main focus is inflation and said, "I see risks from higher energy and food prices. I expect economic growth to slow down, but I don't think we will experience a recession." said.
With these developments, the selling trend, which has been effective since the beginning of the week, continued in the New York stock market yesterday. After the weekly jobless claims came in above expectations with 229 thousand, the Dow Jones index fell 1.94 percent, the S&P 500 index fell 2.38 percent and the Nasdaq index fell 2.75 percent. While it was observed that the demand for the dollar increased in an environment of increasing risk, the dollar index tested the highest level of 3 weeks with 103.4 yesterday. Outflows from the bond market continued, and the US 10-year bond yield hit a one-month high of 3.07%.
On the European side , while the European Central Bank (ECB) did not change the interest rates yesterday in line with the expectations, it gave the signal to increase the interest rates in July and September. Announcing that asset purchases will end in July, the bank also updated its inflation expectations upwards.
ECB President Christine Lagarde, who made a statement after the decision, said that inflation pressure is widening and high inflation is a great challenge for everyone. Emphasizing that a 25 basis point rate hike is planned in July, Lagarde said that they will continue to increase the interest rates in September according to the inflation forecasts. used the phrases.
After the meeting, which was interpreted as "hawk", with the ECB pointing out that inflationary risks continue and opening the door to rapid interest rate hikes, bond yields in Germany, Italy and France rose rapidly, while the stock markets regressed. DAX 30 index lost 1.71 percent in Germany, CAC 40 index lost 1.40 percent in France and FTSE 100 index lost 1.54 percent in England. The 10-year bond yield peaked at 8 years in Germany, 4 years in France and 3.5 years in Italy. Euro/dollar parity, on the other hand, fell to 1.0611 yesterday, the lowest level since May 24.
On the Asian side, while global high inflation and the concerns that rapid rate hikes by central banks will harm economic growth continue, a mixed course is observed in the stock markets. According to the data released today, the CPI in China increased by 2.1 percent annually in May, in line with the expectations. With these developments, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan decreased by 1.5 percent and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong decreased by 0.2 percent, while the Shanghai composite index in China rose by 0.6 percent.
BIST 100 index finished the day at 2,571.57 points with an increase of 1.23 percent in Borsa Istanbul, which was followed by a buyer's trend in the domestic market yesterday. Dollar/TL, on the other hand, is traded at 17.2490 at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing at 17.1961 with an increase of 0.3 percent compared to the previous closing level.
Following the announcement by the Ministry of Treasury and Finance last night that the series of new steps to be taken within the framework of the Turkish Economy Model will be shared, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BDDK) and the Capital Markets Board (SPK) announced measures to strengthen financial stability.
In this context, the BRSA reduced the maturity limit for consumer loans and rearranged the minimum payment limits for credit cards. Taking steps to encourage the public offering and the issuance of capital market instruments abroad, the CMB also stated that the Commodity Market was established in Borsa Istanbul and the work on the issuance of gold certificates was started. The CBRT, on the other hand, increased the required reserve ratios applied to commercial loans from 10 percent to 20 percent, and published the communiqué on banks' establishment of Turkish lira securities for foreign currency liabilities.
On the other hand, the Ministry stated that they will issue income-indexed government debt securities (GES) and that the bookkeeping will be carried out as of June 15. Announced as an alternative tool for citizens to direct their investments to TL-denominated assets, SPP will be indexed to the revenues of state-owned enterprises that have strong income performance and transfer revenues to the budget.
Analysts said that before the May inflation data of the USA, the activity in the bond markets continued, and the risk appetite in the stock markets decreased due to the concerns about the rising inflation and the tightening of the monetary policy of the central banks.
Analysts stated that today, the reflections of the steps announced by the economy management in the country will be followed on the markets, while the statements of ECB President Christine Lagarde and the May inflation data of the USA will be followed abroad.
Analysts stated that, technically, the BIST 100 index's 2.600 and 2.650 levels are in the resistance position, and the 2.500 and 2.440 points are in the support position.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
10.00 Turkey, unemployment rate in April
15.30 US, CPI for May
17.00 USA, June University of Michigan consumer confidence index
21.00 US, May treasury budget balance
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