While the global markets followed a buying-heavy course yesterday with the agreement on the US debt limit and the partial relief of the concerns about the energy crisis, the data in the US's September employment report will be followed today.
Problems in natural gas supply in Europe and high levels of raw material prices, especially oil, cause inflationary concerns to remain on the agenda. When the debt crisis in the real estate sector in China and the mixed signals of macroeconomic data are added to these developments, uncertainties about the future of monetary policies continue.
Among the data that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) takes into account the most, along with inflation, in determining its monetary policy are non-farm employment, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings included in the US employment report. In this context, the September employment report data to be announced today is expected to be decisive on the direction of the markets.
Prior to the aforementioned data, the fact that Democrats and Republicans in the US Senate agreed to increase the country's debt limit for a short time supported the stock markets. After long-lasting negotiations between the parties, Democrat Chuck Schumer, the US Senate Majority Leader, announced that they agreed to increase the Treasury Department's borrowing authority until the beginning of December and that they prevented the country from going into default. With the agreement, it was reported that the debt limit will be increased by 480 billion dollars, which will be sufficient until 3 December.
On the macroeconomic side, weekly jobless claims in the US fell more than expected. In the week ending October 2, the number of people who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time in the country decreased by 38 thousand compared to the previous week and decreased to 326,000.
With these developments, the New York stock market followed a buying weighted course, while the Dow Jones index gained 0.98 percent, the S&P 500 index rose 0.83 percent and the Nasdaq index gained 1.05 percent. After moving in the narrow band of 94.0-94.3 yesterday, the dollar index is at 94.2 levels with an increase of 0.1 percent today. The US 10-year bond yield, on the other hand, tested the highest level since June 17 with 1.58 percent yesterday, and continued its upward trend today, exceeding 1.59 percent. It is seen that the index futures contracts of the USA started the new day with a positive course.
While the news flow regarding natural gas supply on the European side continues to be followed closely, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Union (EU) Commission, stated that the natural gas suppliers who did not increase production despite the demand are responsible for the recently increased energy prices, and they are working to become more independent in energy. Said they would speed it up.
The minutes of the September monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), which was announced yesterday, revealed that some members emphasized that the markets are ready for the end of support under the Pandemic Emergency Asset Purchase Program (PEPP) and that they emphasized greater cuts in asset purchases.
While the industrial production data announced yesterday in Germany declined by 4 percent in August, pointing out that the problems experienced in the supply of intermediate goods continued, despite all these developments, investors focused on the relatively calming energy prices and the elimination of the possibility of default in the USA, and a buying-heavy course was observed in the European stock markets. The FTSE 100 index gained 1.17 percent in the UK, the DAX 30 index gained 1.85 percent in Germany, the CAC 40 index gained 1.65 percent in France and the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy gained 1.51 percent. Euro/dollar parity continues its horizontal movement above 1.15 which is the lowest level of approximately 2.5 months. Index futures contracts in Europe, on the other hand, follow a mixed course.
Contrary to expectations, the Chinese stock market, which opened for trading today after a long holiday in Asia, followed a positive course, while the existence of debt crisis concerns in the real estate sector brought sales to the Hong Kong stock market. On the Asian side, where there is also intense data flow, household expenditures in Japan in August remained below expectations, while the foreign trade balance gave a deficit despite the surplus expectations. China's service sector Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), on the other hand, rose to 53.4, recovering from historical lows of 46.7 last month. On the other hand, the Reserve Bank of India did not change the policy rate of 4 percent in line with expectations.
With these developments, Shanghai composite index increased by 0.3 percent in China, Nikkei 225 index increased by 1.8 percent in Japan and Sensex index increased by 0.8 percent in India, while the Hang Seng index increased by 0.3 percent in Hong Kong and South Korea increased by 0.8 percent. Korea's Kospi index fell 0.1 percent.
Domestically, the BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul gained 1.84 percent yesterday, closing the day at 1,396.92 points. Dollar/TL, on the other hand, is trading at 8.90 levels at the opening of the interbank market today, after moving in the band of 8.80-8.89 yesterday.
Meanwhile, yesterday, Turkey was added to the list of countries with a new type of coronavirus vaccine approved for travel to the UK. Thus, those who have the UK-approved Kovid-19 vaccines in Turkey will be exempted from home quarantine for 10 days.
Analysts said that the positive atmosphere created by the agreement on the debt limit in the US in global markets continues today, with the Chinese stock market starting with buyers after a long holiday.
Stating that the data agenda is calm in the country today and that the data agenda will be followed abroad, especially the employment report to be announced in the USA, analysts said that technically, 1.370 and 1.355 levels in the BIST 100 index will be followed as support, and 1.420 points are in the resistance position.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
09.00 Germany, August foreign trade balance
15.30 US, September non-farm employment and unemployment rate
17.00 US, august wholesale stocks
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