After a sales-heavy course last week with the new variant emerging in the new type of coronavirus (Kovid-19) epidemic in global markets and concerns about inflation, it is expected that the intense data agenda and verbal guidance on monetary policies will be effective in the pricing in the new week.
Minutes from the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve last week indicated that some bank officials argued that if inflation continued to be high, it was necessary to be prepared to accelerate the reduction in asset purchases and raise interest rates sooner than expected.
In the summary of the last meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), it was emphasized that the generous monetary policy support for the economy should be reevaluated in the future depending on the improving inflation outlook and the bank's stance should be brought to a neutral point over time, and it was emphasized that the latest price pressure may be more permanent than expected.
After the details of the last meetings of the Fed and the ECB, the increase in inflationary concerns and, accordingly, the concerns that the central banks might tighten their monetary policies earlier than expected brought about decreases in the stock markets. Towards the end of the week, following the sighting of many mutated Omicron variants of Kovid-19 in South Africa and Botswana, the travel bans of many countries, including Turkey, deepened the aforementioned declines and brought uncertainty about monetary policies to the agenda again.
Analysts said that in an environment where long-term and permanent rise in inflation expectations are strengthened, Omikron variant concerns increase the uncertainties regarding monetary policies.
Stating that the course of the new variant and the measures to be taken by the countries will be decisive on the direction of the stock markets, analysts noted that the evaluations of Fed Chairman Powell today and tomorrow will be important in terms of expectations regarding monetary policies, and that the data to be announced during the week may increase the volatility.
This week, inflation, unemployment rate, consumer confidence index, service sector and manufacturing industry Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data will be announced in the Euro Area and the USA, and the third quarter growth and inflation data in Turkey will be announced.
With these developments, indices in the New York stock market, which was open for half a day on Friday last week, lost value by more than 2 percent. On a weekly basis, there was a decrease of 3.52 percent in the Nasdaq index, 2.20 percent in the S&P 500 index and 1.97 percent in the Dow Jones index. After seeing the highest level since July 2020 with 96.9 last week, the dollar index completed the week at 96.1 and started the new week at 96.3 levels. The US 10-year bond yield, on the other hand, fell below 1.48 percent on Friday due to concerns about the new variant, although it tested 1.67% last week, and is at 1.53 percent today. On the other hand, it is seen that the new week has started positively in the index futures contracts of the USA.
On the European side, the euro/dollar parity, which declined to 1.1186 last week due to inflation concerns and the expectations of an early tightening by the central banks in parallel, recovered above 1.13 by compensating its losses with the news flow on the Omikron variant on Friday. On the share markets side, with a sharp decline of up to 4 percent on Friday, losses on a weekly basis were 5.59 percent in the DAX index in Germany, 5.43 percent in the MIB 30 index in Italy, 5.24 percent in the CAC 40 index in France and England. It also reached 2.49 percent in the FTSE 100 index. While the euro/dollar parity is trading at 1.1280 with a decrease of 0.4 percent today, it is noteworthy that the European index futures contracts have started the new week with buyers.
On the Asian side, expectations for a further slowdown in the economy in China increased last week, while the support signals from the country's central bank supported the Shanghai composite index. In response to the negative effects of increasing Kovid-19 cases, an additional 36 trillion yen ($314 billion) comprehensive budget for the 2021 fiscal year was approved in Japan. Despite these developments, Asian stock markets, which fell sharply last week, seem to continue with the seller's course today. Close to the closing, Shanghai composite index is 0.2 percent, Nikkei 225 index in Japan is 1.6 percent, Hang Seng index in Hong Kong is down 1 percent.
On the commodities side, Brent crude is trading at $74.2, up 3.5 percent today, after the price of Brent oil dropped nearly 12 percent to $71.7 a barrel on Friday, amid concerns about the Omikron variant. The ounce price of gold, on the other hand, closed last week at $1,792 with a decrease of up to 3 percent, while it remains flat today.
Analysts, who stated that the evaluations of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, as well as the news flow about the Omikron variant, will be important in terms of market pricing, said that on the macroeconomic data side, the economic confidence index in the country and consumer confidence in the Eurozone abroad. index, inflation in Germany and Dallas Fed manufacturing industry activity index data in the USA will be followed.
Analysts reported that technically, the 1.830 level in the BIST 100 index is in the resistance position and the 1.730 point in the support position.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
10.00 Turkey, October foreign trade index
10.00 Turkey, November economic confidence index
13.00 Eurozone, November consumer confidence index
16.00 Germany, November CPI
18.00 US, pending home sales in October
18.30 US, November Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index
23.00 USA, Fed Chairman Powell's speech
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