While it is seen that the selling pressure has deepened in global stock markets due to inflation and growth-oriented concerns, the meeting minutes of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) interest rate decision as well as the intense data agenda will be followed in the new week.
The data that fell short of expectations in China last week and the epidemic measures, the financial results of retail companies in the USA revealing that the consumer purchasing power has decreased, and the Fed officials' statements that they will continue to increase interest rates until inflation falls, were the main developments that steered the stock markets.
Concerns that the Fed's continued aggressive interest rate hikes in a high inflationary environment will drag the country's economy into recession caused the sales to deepen in the stock markets, while the decline in indices approaching 20 percent since the beginning of the year brought bear market fears to the agenda.
With these developments, it will be discussed whether the Fed will react to the decline in stocks, while the meeting minutes of the Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the statements of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Chairman Haruhiko Kuroda will be followed closely in the new week. In the domestic market, the credit rating assessment, which is expected to be made by the credit rating agency Moody's on Friday, will be in the focus of the markets, with the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) on Thursday.
The news from the Davos Summit, which started in Davos, Switzerland, after a two-year hiatus, will also be followed in the week when macroeconomic data flow is intense, especially the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) to be announced worldwide with the first quarter growth in Germany and the USA.
While volatility was observed to be high in the New York stock market on Friday, the decline in the S&P 500 index since the beginning of the year reached 20 percent. With purchases close to the closing, the Dow Jones index rose by 0.03 percent and the S&P 500 index rose by 0.01 percent, while the Nasdaq index decreased by 0.30 percent. The weekly losses of the indices were realized as 3.3 percent on average. The 10-year bond yield of the USA, which decreased from 3.01 percent to 2.79% last week, is at the level of 2.82 percent at the opening of the new week. The dollar index, which ended the 6-week upward streak in a row and finished the week at 103 with a decrease of 1.4 percent, was stabilized at 102.7 today.
On the European side, European Central Bank (ECB) officials continued to point to July for the first interest rate hike, as the data released last week indicated that inflationary pressures continued throughout the region. While the evaluations regarding the rate hike dimension were followed closely, ECB Board Member Klaas Knot was the first to voice the half basis point increase. With the interest rate cut by the Central Bank of China on Friday, it was observed that the risk appetite remained alive on the European side, while the DAX 30 index in Germany was 0.72 percent, the FTSE 100 index in the UK was 1.19 percent and the CAC 40 index in France was 0.20 percent. rose. On a weekly basis, it was noteworthy that all three indices depreciated by 0.6 percent on average.
Parallel to the decline in the dollar index, the euro/dollar parity also started to rise from its lowest level since January 2017 and stabilized at 1.05. Dollar/British pound parity also increased by 1.8 percent last week after 4 weeks of decline and rose to 1.25 levels.
While it is seen that the new week started cautiously in Asian stock markets, Shanghai composite index in China decreased by 0.2 percent and Hang Seng index in Hong Kong decreased by 1.4 percent, Nikkei 225 index in Japan and Sensex index in India decreased by 0.7 percent. rose 0.6 percent.
BIST 100 index decreased by 0.89 percent and closed the day at 2,372.35 points in Borsa Istanbul, which followed a selling course on Friday last week. The index lost 1.94 percent on a weekly basis. Dollar/TL started the new week at 15,9450 at the opening of the interbank market, after closing at 15,9035 with an increase of 2.7 percent compared to the previous week's closing.
Analysts stated that the recession concerns and the expectation that the declines in the stock markets will continue, pushing investors to be cautious, said that volatility may remain on the agenda for a while.
Analysts stated that today, the real sector confidence index and capacity utilization rate and the CBRT's Market Participants Survey will be monitored in Turkey, the Ifo business world confidence index in Germany and the Chicago national activity index in the USA will be monitored, technically the BIST 100 index is 2,350. and 2.290 levels are in the support position and 2,470 points are in the resistance position.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
10.00 Turkey, May real sector confidence index and capacity utilization rate
10.00 Turkey, May CBRT Market Participants Survey
11.00 Germany, May Ifo business confidence index
11.00 Turkey, March house price index
15.30 US, April Chicago National Activity Index
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