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Global markets are mixed

Global markets are watching mixed with the concerns that the inflation data announced yesterday in the USA may further hawk the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

Global markets are mixed

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which recorded its strongest annual rise since 1981 with 8.5 percent in the USA, made pricing difficult in bond and share markets.

After the data, the probability that the Fed will increase interest rates by 50 basis points at the meeting in May increased to 85 percent, while the expectation that inflation might peak in March stopped the 7-day selling trend in the bond markets. The US 10-year bond yield stabilized at 2.75% after hitting 2.83% yesterday, the highest level since December 2018.

More than half of the monthly CPI increase in the USA stemmed from the price increase in petroleum products, while price increases in accommodation and food also contributed significantly to the rise.

Core CPI in the USA increased by 0.3 percent monthly, falling short of expectations, and helped to ease the inflation pressure to some extent.

Fed officials continued their hawkish statements. Fed member Lael Brainard noted that they can start shrinking the balance sheet in June, and stated that he believes the Fed will be able to control inflation without causing a recession.

St Louis Fed President James Bullard stated that the expectations that the increase in interest rates will not affect the economy are just fantasies.

On the other hand, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated yesterday that the Ukrainian side rejected the agreements reached as a result of the negotiations with Russia in Istanbul, "We are all at a dead end again." said. US President Joe Biden stated that Putin committed "genocide" in Ukraine.

While the aforementioned developments caused a decrease in the risk appetite on a global basis, the price of Brent oil per barrel rose by about 6 percent to $104.8 yesterday due to the concern that supply-side problems might recur.

With the increasing risk perception, the ounce price of gold carried its rise to the fifth day, and it is currently finding buyers at the level of $ 1,973 with an increase of 0.3 percent.

With the increasing selling trend towards the close yesterday, the S&P 500 index lost 0.34 percent, the Nasdaq index by 0.30 percent and the Dow Jones index by 0.26 percent in the New York stock market. Index futures contracts in the USA started the day with an upward trend.

Increasing inflation pressure continues to be influential on pricing in European stock markets ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting to be held tomorrow.

According to the data released yesterday, the CPI in Germany increased by 2.5 percent on a monthly basis and by 7.3 percent on an annual basis, while annual inflation reached its highest level since 1981. It was noteworthy that wholesale prices increased by 6.9 percent in March compared to the previous month.

In the statement of the German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), "The annual increase rate in question was the highest annual rate of increase seen since the beginning of the calculation of wholesale price indices in 1962." expressions were used.

With the aforementioned data, Germany's 10-year bond yield reached its highest level since July 2015 with 0.86 percent, and closed the day with purchases from this level at 0.79 percent.

Yesterday, DAX index lost 0.48 percent in Germany, FTSE 100 index lost 0.55 percent in England, FTSE MIB 30 index lost 0.33 percent in Italy and CAC 40 decreased 0.28 percent in France. European indices also started futures trading with a sales-based trend today.

While Asian stock markets started with a new day-to-day trend, it is seen that China, which diverged negatively, made up for its losses with better-than-expected macroeconomic data.

According to the data announced in Japan today, machinery orders fell by 9.8 percent on a monthly basis, the most in the last two years, and it is stated that the Kovid-19 outbreak and the measures taken were effective in the said decline.

In China, exports increased by 14.7 percent last month, while foreign trade surplus exceeded expectations with $47.4 billion.

With these developments, Shanghai composite index gained 0.32 percent in China, Nikkei 225 index in Japan gained 2 percent, Kospi index in South Korea gained 1.73 percent and Hang Seng index in Hong Kong gained 0.91 percent.

Domestically, the BIST 100 index improved its closing record by completing the day at 2,463.76 points, with an increase of 0.60 percent compared to the previous closing, after bringing its historical peak to 2,474.70 points yesterday.

After closing at 14,6007 with a decrease of 0.4 percent yesterday, the Dollar/TRY is trading at the level of 14,5800 at the opening of the interbank market today.

Analysts stated that the data agenda is calm in the country, and that CPI and PPI in the UK and PPI data in the USA will be followed abroad, and said that technically, 2,500 points in the BIST 100 index are in the resistance, 2.410 and 2.390 levels are in the support position.

The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:

09.00 UK, March CPI and PPI

12.00 Eurozone, industrial production in February

15.30 US, March PPI

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