After the hawkish messages given by the bank officials, especially the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, regarding the interest rate hike path, were supported by the inflation data that maintained its position in the country at the highest level in the last 39 years, the Fed will increase interest rates four times this year, and the first His expectations that he will take the next step in March have strengthened.
While this situation brought about a mixed course in the stock markets, the 10-year bond yields of the USA decreased to 1.70 percent after testing 1.81 percent at the beginning of the week, but rose to 1.79 percent again on Friday. .
The balance sheets of leading banks and the data announced on Friday in the USA also gave mixed signals. Net profit fell 14 percent at JPMorgan Chase and 26 percent at Citigroup, compared to 86 percent at Wells Fargo, in the fourth quarter of last year. Retail sales in the country decreased by 1.9 percent in December compared to the previous month, recording the biggest drop in 10 months, while industrial production decreased by 0.1 percent, contrary to the expectations of the increase in the market.
With these developments, a mixed course was observed in the New York stock market on Friday, and it was noteworthy that the indices fell on a weekly basis. The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.30 percent, the Dow Jones index decreased by 0.88 percent and the Nasdaq index decreased by 0.28 percent last week. The dollar index started the new week flat at 95.2, after completing the week with a depreciation of 0.6 percent, which was in the band of 94.6-96.3. There will be no trading in the US markets today due to the Martin Luther King Day holiday.
On the European side, while the verbal guidance of the European Central Bank (ECB) officials on inflation and monetary policy and the growth data announced in the region were influential on the direction of the markets, the eyes were turned to the minutes of the last meeting of the ECB, which will be announced on Thursday this week. In addition to the meeting minutes, inflation data in Germany, the UK and the Eurozone will be released this week. Prior to these developments, a mixed course was observed in the European stock markets due to the high level of inflation announced in the USA and the hawkish attitude of the Fed.
On a weekly basis, the FTSE 100 index gained 0.77 percent in the UK, the DAX 30 index in Germany decreased by 0.40 percent, the CAC 40 index in France by 1.06 percent and the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy decreased by 0.3 percent. . Euro/dollar parity started the new week flat after closing at 1.1416 levels with 0.5 percent increase last week.
On the Asian side, it was seen that the mixed course prevailing in the stock markets last week moved to the new week with the growth data announced in China and then the interest rate cut by the country's central bank. According to the data released today, the Chinese economy grew by 4 percent annually in the last quarter of last year, above expectations. The country's economy grew by 8.1 percent in 2021 compared to the previous year. On the other hand, while industrial production in China increased by 4.3 percent on an annual basis in December, above the expectations, the increase in retail sales was below the market forecasts with 1.7 percent.
The People's Bank of China (PBoC) reduced the one-year loan interest rate for the first time since April 2020, from 2.95% to 2.85%. The bank also reduced the seven-day reverse repo rate from 2.2 percent to 2.1 percent.
Analysts said that the Chinese economy grew above expectations in the last quarter with the support of strong exports. Pointing out that the central bank supports the economy with interest rate cuts, analysts noted that the steps to stimulate consumption may continue.
With these developments, Shanghai composite index in China increased by 0.6 percent and Nikkei 225 index in Japan increased by 0.8 percent, Kospi index in South Korea decreased by 1.4 percent and Hang Seng index in Hong Kong decreased by 0.6 percent. watching.
Domestically, the BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul gained 0.11% on Friday, carrying its upward trend for the 10th consecutive trading day and closing the week at 2,072.93 points. The index gained 1.95 percent on a weekly basis. Dollar/TL, on the other hand, started the new week at 13,5250 at the opening of the interbank market, after completing the previous week with a decrease of 1.9 percent at 13,5149.
Analysts stated that the new week started with a mixed course in global stock markets and said that a calm course may come to the fore due to the weak data agenda and the closed US markets today.
Analysts, who emphasized that the messages to be given in the interest rate decision and the text of the decision to be issued at the CBRT Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Thursday, will be determinative on the direction of the markets, said that technically, 2.050 and 2.035 levels in the BIST 100 index are in the position of support and 2.090 points in the resistance position.
All economists surveyed by AA Finans predict that the CBRT will keep the policy rate constant at 14 percent.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
10.00 Turkey, short-term external debt statistics
11.00 Turkey, December budget balance
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