While the expectations regarding the Fed's monetary policy are once again playing a leading role in the markets, the minutes of the Fed's meeting, which will be announced this evening, will look for clues about the future of monetary policy.
Although the Omicron variant continues to pose risks for the stock markets in the new type of coronavirus (Kovid-19) epidemic, the investors' tendencies that the disease is easily overcome and that it will not have the feared effect on the economies are effective on the pricing for now. The Procurement Management Institute (ISM) manufacturing index announced yesterday in the USA, In December 2021, it fell to 58.7 with a decrease of 2.4 points compared to the previous month and fell to the lowest level in 11 months. The number of job vacancies in JOLTS decreased by 529 thousand in November 2021 compared to the previous month and decreased to 10 million 562 thousand. The number of people leaving their jobs in the same period reached an all-time high with 4.5 million in the same period.
Analysts reported that the continued increase in the number of people leaving their jobs increased the pressure of high wages on companies and thus inflation expectations. Analysts, who stated that it is seen as certain, said that a 15 basis point interest rate increase with a 67 percent probability in March will be realized. While the prices in question supported the sales that have been effective in the bond market since the beginning of the week, the US 10-year bond yield rose to 1.65%. After the steepening in the US yield curve, the technology-intensive Nasdaq index decreased by 1.33 percent, while the Dow Jones index broke the closing record with an increase of 0.59 percent. The S&P 500 index, on the other hand, lost 0.06 percent yesterday with a limited decline. In the USA, index futures contracts are following a selling course. While the statements of the European Central Bank (ECB) officials in Europe this week are in the focus of investors, the bustling data calendar is expected to increase the volatility in asset prices.
According to the macroeconomic data announced yesterday in Germany, unemployment decreased to 5.2 percent, while retail sales exceeded expectations with a monthly increase of 0.6 percent. 82, the CAC 40 index in France gained 1.39 percent and the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy gained 0.81 percent. European indices are negative in futures today. The euro/dollar parity is flat at 1.13 levels, after falling to 1.1297 with a decrease of 0.7 percent yesterday. The Dollar/Japanese yen parity reached the highest level of the last five years with 116.3 yesterday, and is currently trading at 116.1. With these developments, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan remained flat, while the Shanghai composite in China index decreased by 1.25 percent, ASX 200 index in Australia decreased by 0.32 percent, Hang Seng index in Hong Kong decreased by 1.17 percent and Kospi index in South Korea decreased by 1.62 percent.
While there is a calm data calendar in the country today, the Fed's meeting minutes will be followed, as well as the services sector and the composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in Germany, the Eurozone and the USA, and the ADP private sector employment data in the USA. Technically, 1.980 and 2.000 levels are in the resistance position, and 1.900 points are in the support position in the BIST 100 index. The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows: 11.55 Germany, December services sector and composite PMI12.00 Eurozone, December services sector and composite PMI16. 15 US, December ADP private sector employment17.45 US, December services and composite PMI22.00 US, Fed meeting minutes
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