While the concerns about the Russia-Ukraine war in global markets remain in the focus of investors, volatility is observed to be high before the decisions of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which is preparing to increase interest rates after more than 3 years.
Although the Russia-Ukraine war and the concerns about the effects of the sanctions announced in parallel continue to be decisive on the direction of the markets, the volatility in the markets has reached significant dimensions with the increasing number of new types of coronavirus (Kovid-19) cases in China and the inclusion of the Fed's upcoming interest rate decision in the pricing. .
Increasing optimism about the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and concerns that the increasing number of cases in China will weaken demand brought about the retreat in commodity prices. which saw $ 98.2.
On the other hand, with the increasing optimism about the Russia-Ukraine war and the fact that the Fed will start to raise interest rates at its meeting tomorrow, the exit from the bond markets accelerated. This situation also increased the selling pressure, especially on technology and growth stocks, while the US 10-year bond yield tested the highest level after June 2019 with 2.17 percent.
With the increase in volatility in the markets, the indices, which started the day with an increase in the New York stock market, gave back their gains close to the closing. The S&P 500 index fell 0.74 percent and the Nasdaq index fell 2.04 percent, while the Dow Jones index closed the day just above the previous closing level. The dollar index decreased to 98.9 today after closing from 99.1 levels with a flat course yesterday.
On the European side, while the European Union (EU) countries, which came together yesterday, approved the new sanctions package against Russia, a positive trend was observed in the stock markets due to the drop in oil prices. The FTSE 100 index gained 0.53 percent in the UK, the DAX 30 index gained 2.21 percent in Germany and the CAC 40 index gained 1.75 percent in France. While the euro/dollar parity continues its movement in the narrow band of 1.09-1.10, the news flow regarding NATO's Joint Expeditionary Force Summit, which will be held under the leadership of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, will be followed today.
While it is noteworthy that the volatility that increased globally was carried over to the new day with the Asian stock markets this morning, the losses reached 7 percent after the opening in the Hong Kong stock market, with the decline of up to 10 percent yesterday in the shares of Alibaba and Tencent. On the other hand, according to the data released today, industrial production in China increased by 7.5 percent and retail sales by 6.7 percent on an annual basis in February, well above the expectations. Despite the positive data, the Shanghai composite index in China is 3.5 percent and Hong Kong is close to the closing with the increasing number of cases in China, the uncertainty about the Russia-Ukraine war and the Fed's guidance on how the interest rate hike process will continue. In Japan, the Hang Seng index fell 4.3 percent, while the Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose 0.1 percent.
Domestically, BIST 100 index, which continues to differentiate positively from global equity markets in Borsa Istanbul, closed the day at 2,088.48 points with an increase of 1.69 percent. Dollar/TL, on the other hand, is trading at 14.83 levels at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing at 14.7804 with an increase of 0.09 percent yesterday.
Analysts said that inflation, which is at all-time highs in global markets, geopolitical tensions and volatility increased before the upcoming Fed's interest rate decision.
Analysts pointed out that although optimism about the Russia-Ukraine war has increased, no concrete development has been recorded yet, and stressed that the news flow on the subject remains at the center of the agenda.
Analysts stated that house sales statistics in the country, industrial production in the Eurozone abroad, ZEW Economic Expectations Index in Germany and Producer Price Index (PPI) in the USA will be monitored today. He reported that the 2.090 and 2.130 levels are in the resistance position.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
10.00 Turkey, February house sales
10.00 UK unemployment rate for January
11.00 Turkey, February budget balance
13.00 Euro Zone, industrial production in January
13.00 Germany, March ZEW Economic Prospects Index
15.30 US, February PPI
15.30 US, March New York Fed Industrial Index
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