Current steel prices seem to have decreased below production costs. Given the elasticity of raw material prices, high energy and financing costs, rising costs associated with green steel production and low capacity utilisation, as well as strong restrictions on imports, it seems unreasonable to expect further price declines.
Last spring, European buyers heavily utilised their hot-rolled coil quota, which coincided with production shutdowns at many European steel plants, the association said. "By 25 July, the quota for the September quarter was exhausted, and on 1 October, the opening day of the new quarterly quota, it was again immediately exhausted. This once again shows that the quota calculation by the EU Commission does not match the real needs of buyers.
The outlook for the flat and long steel distribution sector remains stable in the short term. Distributors continue to report market weakness across all products. "Medium and large metal fabricators have some significant orders in their portfolios, but these are likely to be insufficient to properly cover the coming quarter, given the general uncertainty in macroeconomic trends, which has caused large groups to postpone their investments," the association says.
Attempts by steelmakers to support prices have generally failed due to a lack of downstream demand. Material availability remains at good levels, although some mills will implement shutdowns to tighten supply, Assofermet said.
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