Call for Support for Exporters
Dr. Keyvan Jafari Tehrani said that exporters need serious support in the current economic conditions, stressing that at the very least the government should lift restrictions on the domestic market. “During the Thirteenth Government, export taxes were added and this dealt a significant blow to the sector. Although these problems were partially addressed later, similar problems continued under the Fourteenth Government. Restrictions on NIMA foreign exchange and the requirement to return 100% of export proceeds created barriers to exports in the steel sector. All these internal regulations led to a decline in exports.”
Increase in Sea Transportation Costs
Sharing his views on the recent increase in maritime transportation costs, the expert said, “Even before the Trump administration has fully taken shape, the cost per ton of maritime transportation has increased by $3 and there is great uncertainty in the markets. For example, two weeks ago, the transportation cost of a 50,000-ton Supramax ship was $23.5 for shipments to China, while today this figure has risen to $26.5 and it is even said that it could reach $30. Such cost increases directly affect FOB prices,” he said.
Geopolitical Developments and Iran's Mineral Exports
Speaking on the impact of geopolitical developments on Iran's mining sector, the expert said, “A major concern is the possibility of Trump using Iran as a bargaining chip in his negotiations with China. He may ask China to limit its purchases from Iran and may even decide to admit ships belonging to the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines only to certain Chinese ports. If this happens, our mining and minerals exports to China, especially concentrates, pellets and other mineral materials, could be severely reduced.”
Currency and Economic Problems
The expert noted that the country's currency has been steadily depreciating, which has increased economic pressure on the population, and that some major exporting countries have taken advantage of similar strategies: “By devaluing its national currency in the 2000s, Japan overtook Germany and became the world's third largest economy. Similarly, China overtook Japan and rose to second place in the world economy. Even the United States has at times deliberately weakened its currency to boost its exports. So, can we also take advantage of the depreciation of the rial?”
Foreign Investment and Uncertainty
Referring to the uncertainties in attracting foreign investment, the expert said, “Although the Trump administration's easing of sanctions on Iran is on the agenda, there is no clear information on when and how this will happen. It may not be realistic to expect a quick recovery and the process may take time. Trump has only four years left in office and needs to take concrete steps in this timeframe. In recent statements, he has indicated his intention to open the US embassy in Iran, but it remains unclear how quickly this will be realized.”
Final Word: Investment and Realistic Policies are Essential
At the end of the interview, he made the following assessment: “People are tired of promises and hopes from the public and private sector. Nowadays, many private sector companies and organizations are taking on the role of governments, but instead of telling people the facts, they just say 'we can do it' slogans. Realistic investments are needed for competence and capability.”
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