While the global markets followed a buying-heavy course with the worries about inflationary pressures being pushed into the background, today the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Market Participants Survey and industrial production data will be followed in the domestic market, and the consumer confidence index in the USA abroad will be followed.
After the inflation in the USA reached the highest level of the last 31 years with 6.2 percent on an annual basis in October, the expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will display a more hawkish stance on interest rate hikes have increased.
While some analysts predicted that the Fed may increase interest rates three times as of July, following the termination of monthly bond purchases in the first half of next year, the possibility that the European Central Bank (ECB) may make its first move next year has become stronger.
Analysts stated that the Fed changed its direction regarding inflation in its last meeting, while Fed Chairman Powell used the term "stubborn inflation", and said that all developments, together with the latest data, laid the groundwork for the implementation of tighter monetary policies next year. On the equity markets side, the analysts pointed out that the pricing shows that investors ignore the risks related to inflation.
With these developments, a mixed course was observed in the New York stock market yesterday, while the Dow Jones index decreased by 0.44 percent, the S&P 500 index gained 0.06 percent and the Nasdaq index gained 0.52 percent. With the increase in the demand for the dollar in the international markets, the dollar index continued to rise yesterday and reached the highest level of the last 16 months with 95.2. The index carried its rise to the third day and tested 95.3 levels today. The US 10-year bond yield continued to rise after the inflation data, reaching 1.57 percent. In the index futures contracts of the USA, it is seen that the new day started with a positive trend.
According to the data released on the European side yesterday, the UK economy grew by 1.3 percent in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter and by 6.6 percent on an annual basis, below the expectations. In the country, industrial production in September decreased by 0.4 percent monthly and increased by 2.9 percent annually. Despite the fact that the announced data were below expectations and concerns about rising inflation, a buying-heavy trend was observed in the stock markets. DAX 30 index gained 0.1 percent in Germany, FTSE 100 index gained 0.6 percent in England, CAC 40 index gained 0.2 percent in France and FTSE MIB 30 index gained 0.26 percent in Italy. Euro/dollar parity, after falling to its lowest level in 16 months with 1.1443 yesterday, continued its decline for the third day and stabilized at 1.1435 levels. Index futures contracts in Europe, on the other hand, are following a buying trend today.
In Asia, pricing that the Chinese real estate company Evergrande has avoided default by paying its bond payments and the government's announcement that it has relaxed the refinancing conditions for the real estate sector continue to support the stock markets. On the other hand, at the 4-day high-level meeting of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in Beijing, the draft resolution, which is an ideological assessment of the party's 100-year history, was accepted. With the decision, it was emphasized that Xi was a "thought-founding leader" like Mao Zidong and Ding Xiaoping among the party leaders from past to present, and the sign of the third period of power was given. This paved the way for Shi's lifelong leadership.
With these developments, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan gained 1 percent, the Kospi index in South Korea by 1.5 percent, the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong by 0.2 percent and the Shanghai composite index in China gained 0.1 percent.
On the commodity side, with the effect of the strengthening in the dollar, the price of Brent oil per barrel depreciated by 0.2 percent yesterday, closing just below $ 82, and is trading at $ 81.5 today. The ounce price of gold, on the other hand, increased by 0.5 percent yesterday and closed at $ 1,863, today it is at $ 1,859 with a decrease of 0.2 percent.
Domestically, the BIST 100 index gained 0.06 percent in Borsa Istanbul yesterday, bringing the closing record to 1,625.06 points and the highest level record to 1,643.82 points. Dollar/TL, on the other hand, broke the record with 9.9866 at the opening of the interbank market today, after increasing by 0.6 percent and closing at 9.91 levels yesterday.
On the other hand, yesterday, Turkey's current account surplus of 1 billion 652 million dollars in September, while the 12-month current account deficit was 18 billion 444 million dollars.
Analysts said that after the surplus in the current account balance, eyes were turned to the Monetary Policy Committee meeting of the CBRT to be held next week, and that interest rate cuts may continue at this meeting.
Analysts stated that today, industrial production and the CBRT's Market Participants Survey will be followed in the domestic market, and industrial production in the Euro Zone and consumer confidence index in the USA will be followed, technically, 1.650 points are resistance and 1.570 points are support for the BIST 100 index. reported.
Economists participating in AA Finans' survey expect the calendar adjusted industrial production index to increase by 10.34 percent in September compared to the same period of the previous year. Economists predict that the unadjusted industrial production index will increase by 8.03 percent on an annual basis in September.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
10.00 Turkey, CBRT Market Participants Survey
10.00 Turkey, September industrial production
13.00 Euro Zone, industrial production in September
18.00 US, November University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index
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