While a mixed course was followed in the global markets after the contradictory statements regarding the Russia-Ukraine tensions and the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) meeting minutes did not reveal a more hawkish picture than feared, domestic eyes were turned to the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) interest rate decision today. .
Despite the announcement of the Russian Ministry of Defense that some military units that have completed their missions within the scope of the exercises have started to return to their bases, the US and NATO's statements to the contrary cause geopolitical risks to remain at the center of the agenda.
While US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that Russia did not withdraw its troops from the Ukrainian border, on the contrary, it moved critical elements towards the border, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that the Russian military buildup continued. In the face of these statements, Russia called on Western countries to "stop provoking hysteria".
After the developments, it is observed that the risk perception in global markets turned negative, while the barrel price of Brent oil, which closed at $ 90.3 yesterday, is trading at $ 91.5 with an increase of 1.2 percent today.
While the central banks' monetary policy steps remain in the focus of the markets, the minutes of the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which was announced yesterday, on January 25-26, showed that the bank is ready to increase the interest rate and shrink its balance sheet soon. "Most members indicated that it would be appropriate for the Committee to remove policy support more quickly than currently anticipated if inflation did not decline as expected," the minutes said. statement was included.
After the minutes were in line with the directions of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and did not show a more "hawk" appearance than expected, the probability of a 50 basis point increase in interest rates in the bond market decreased to 35 percent in the bond market. The bank is expected to increase interest rates by a total of 150 basis points throughout the year, the first of which was in March.
Losses in the New York stock market, which fell sharply during the day as pricing on geopolitical risks turned negative, were partially compensated by the Fed meeting minutes and data that came above expectations. The Dow Jones index fell 0.16 percent and the Nasdaq index fell 0.11 percent, while the S&P 500 index rose 0.09 percent. After closing the day at 95.7 levels with a decrease of 0.3 percent yesterday, the dollar index remains flat today. The US 10-year bond yield fell to 1.98%.
While the news flow regarding the Russia-Ukraine crisis on the European side continued to be the main factor shaping the share markets, possible increases in energy prices in case Western countries imposed sanctions on Russia caused fluctuations in the sector's shares. While it was stated that the pricing on the subject could be reshaped with the informal meeting of the leaders of the European Union (EU) countries on Russia, which will be held in Brussels today, on the monetary policy side, Martins Kazaks was among the bank members who stated that it is possible for the European Central Bank (ECB) to increase interest rates within the year. The importance of the statements made by Christine Lagarde, the President of the ECB, increased today.
With these developments, DAX 30 index lost 0.28 percent in Germany, FTSE 100 index lost 0.07 percent in England and CAC 40 index lost 0.21 percent in France. After closing at 1.1382 with an increase of 0.2 percent yesterday, the euro/dollar parity decreased to 1.1350 levels today.
On the Asian side, the discussions on monetary policies in Japan, the decline in iron ore prices in China and the number of new types of coronavirus cases across the region came to the fore as the developments that shape today's pricing in the stock markets. While exports in Japan fell by 9.6 percent year on year in January, below expectations, the Nikkei 225 index near the closing fell by 0.8 percent, the Shanghai composite index in China remained flat, and the Kospi index in South Korea rose by 0.5 percent.
In the domestic market, the positive outlook was preserved despite the fluctuating course in Borsa Istanbul yesterday, while the BIST 100 index finished the day at 2,041.43 points with an increase of 0,16 percent. After closing at 13.5949 yesterday by maintaining its horizontal course in the last period, Dollar/TL is at 13.5880 levels at the opening of the interbank market today.
Analysts stated that the news flow regarding the Russia-Ukraine crisis remains the focus of the agenda, and that on the monetary policy side, the G20 financial leaders will come together today, as well as the statements of ECB President Lagarde.
Analysts stated that the interest rate decision of the CBRT Monetary Policy Committee (PPK) is expected domestically, and that weekly unemployment applications and housing starts in the USA are on the data agenda.
Analysts reported that technically, 1,990 points in the BIST 100 index are in the position of support and the level of 2,090 is in the resistance position.
All economists surveyed by AA Finans predict that the policy rate will remain constant at 14 percent. The median of economists' year-end policy rate expectations was 14 percent.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
14.00 Turkey, CBRT interest rate decision
14.30 Turkey, weekly money and bank statistics
16.30 US, January housing starts
16.30 US, weekly jobless claims
16.30 US, February Philadelpia Fed Manufacturing Index
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