The fact that the natural gas futures contract in Europe rose to record levels with 162 euros last week and that the price of Brent oil per barrel at $83.5 saw the peak of nearly 3 years fed inflationary concerns. Due to the rise in inflation expectations, the upward trend in bond yields continued. In the second half of the week, although the agreement on the debt ceiling in the USA and Russia's statements that calmed energy prices supported the risk appetite, the mixed signals from the US employment report caused the pricing difficulties to continue.
Non-farm employment in the USA increased by 194 thousand people in September, well below the market expectations of 500 thousand people. The unemployment rate in the country fell to 4.8 percent from 5.2 percent in September, the lowest level since March 2020.
Analysts said that employment data, which is one of the important indicators that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) considers in determining its monetary policy, shows that the uncertainties regarding the labor market and the rebalancing process in the economy will continue for a while, but the bank is not expected to make a change in its plan to reduce the pace of asset purchases.
Emphasizing that the importance of inflation data in the USA, which will be announced on Wednesday this week, has increased, analysts stated that the Fed's monetary policy roadmap can be understood more clearly with the details of the Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on September 21-22 on the same day. he did.
Although the New York stock market fell on Friday after the employment data announced, it was remarkable that the indices recorded an increase on a weekly basis. On a weekly basis, the Dow Jones index gained 1.22 percent, the S&P 500 index gained 0.79 percent and the Nasdaq index gained 0.09 percent. The dollar index, which closed at 94.1 after moving in the 93.6-94.5 band last week, started the new week flat. US 10-year bond yields are at 1.61% today, after testing the highest level in the last four months with 1.62% on Friday. It is seen that the index futures contracts of the USA started the new week with a decrease.
While the problems experienced in natural gas supply were at the top of the agenda on the European side last week, the data announced in the region confirmed that the economic recovery was not at the desired level. The European Central Bank's (ECB) message that it is ready for the end of the support that was put into use during the epidemic was also among the prominent developments of the week. As inflation expectations continued to rise, the euro carried its depreciation against the dollar for the fifth week in a row. With these developments, the FTSE 100 index in England gained 0.97 percent, the CAC 40 index in France by 0.65 percent and the DAX index in Germany by 0.33 percent on a weekly basis. The euro/dollar parity is at 1.1570 today, after seeing its lowest level since July 2020 with 1.1530 last week. Index futures contracts in Europe, on the other hand, started the new week with a decline.
While the debt crisis in the real estate sector in China continues to remain on the agenda, the 107-day closure in Australia's largest city, Sydney, ended today. On the other hand, the dollar/yen parity reached its highest level since December 2018 with 112.7. With the weakening of the yen supporting exporter company shares, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan gained 1.6 percent close to the closing, while the Shanghai composite index in China rose 0.4 percent and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong rose 2.2 percent.
On the commodities side, the price of Brent oil per barrel has seen its highest level since October 2018, with $83.5 today, after gaining more than 4% last week.
Domestically, the BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul gained 0.08 percent on Friday and closed at 1.398.00 points, while the loss in the index on a weekly basis was 0.25 percent. Dollar/TL, on the other hand, is trading at 8,9450 levels at the opening of the interbank market today, after carrying its historical peak to 8,9755 last week.
Analysts said that inflationary concerns remained on the agenda as raw material prices, especially oil, remained on the agenda, and that the mixed signals of macroeconomic data caused the uncertainty in terms of monetary policies to continue.
Pointing out that the course of the rising bond interest rates in parallel with inflationary concerns should be followed carefully, analysts said that the data agenda abroad is calm today, the balance of payments and unemployment rate data for August will be followed in the country. He stated that his presentation in .
Analysts reported that technically, 1.370 and 1.355 levels in the BIST 100 index are in the support position and 1.420 points are in the resistance position.
Economists participating in the survey conducted by AA Finans expect the current account to have a deficit of 190 million dollars in August. The average of economists' year-end current account deficit expectations was 20 billion 390 million dollars.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
10.00 Turkey, August balance of payments
10.00 Turkey, unemployment rate in august
14.00 Turkey, CBRT Chairman Şahap Kavcıoğlu's presentation to the Planning and Budget Committee of the Grand National Assembly of Turkey
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