With the ongoing problems in the supply chain and energy supply, the price of Brent oil per barrel reached its highest level since October 2018 with $82.9, and the price of West Texas type crude oil at $79.6 per barrel since November 2014. After the increase in raw material prices, especially oil, continued to support inflationary concerns, statements from monetary policy makers gained importance.
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans stated that the time to reduce asset purchases is near, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) President Kristalina Georgieva said that central banks should be ready to take steps if needed, and that they expect inflation pressure to decrease in many countries in 2022. Stating that the global economic growth is expected to fall slightly below 6 percent this year, Georgieva said that the divergence in growth, inflation and debts; He stated that there are difficulties before recovery.
While the debate on the US debt limit continues to be on the agenda, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that if Congress does not address the debt limit within 2 weeks, the US will face recession.
On the macroeconomic side, the US Supply Management Institute (ISM) non-manufacturing index rose by 0.2 points to 61.9 in September, exceeding expectations. While the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of the service sector in the country was revised from 54.4 to 54.9, the foreign trade deficit reached a record level of 73.3 billion dollars in August.
Yesterday, it was seen that investors ignored the current risks in the New York stock market and started to buy after the sharp decline of the previous day with the support of positive data. With these developments, the Dow Jones index gained 0.92 percent, the S&P 500 index gained 1.05 percent and the Nasdaq index gained 1.25 percent. The dollar index is at 94.1 levels with an increase of 0.1 percent today, after closing just below the 94 limit with an increase of 0.2 percent yesterday. The 10-year bond yields of the USA, on the other hand, increased from the level of 1.48%, which started yesterday, and tested the level of 1.54 percent, and today it was over 1.57 percent. It is seen that the index futures contracts of the USA started the new day with a negative course.
While the news flow on natural gas supply in Europe continues to be followed closely, the increase in the service sector PMI data across the region in September compared to the previous month supported the stock markets. While the FTSE 100 index gained 0.94 percent in the UK, the DAX 30 index gained 1.05 percent in Germany and 1.52 percent in the CAC 40 index in France, the euro/dollar parity closed just below 1.16 yesterday, today. moves horizontally. European index futures contracts are followed by a sales-heavy trend today.
On the Asian side, news flow regarding the debt crisis in the real estate sector in China and political developments in Japan remain at the top of the agenda. While the results of the survey in Japan revealed that the public support for the new Prime Minister Kishida Fumio and his cabinet was 55.7 percent, the moderate support compared to the previous prime ministers increased the importance of the pre-election developments. On the other hand, it is reported that the Kishida Fumio government plans to reactivate the "take a trip" campaign, which was stopped in December 2020 after the state of emergency (OHAL) that ended last week in the country.
With these developments, it is seen that the indices on the Asian side, which started the day positively, returned their gains due to the rise in oil prices. is on a downward trend.
Domestically, BIST 100 index depreciated by 0.19 percent in Borsa Istanbul yesterday and closed the day at 1,391.65 points. On the other hand, after moving in the 8.84-8.90 band yesterday, the dollar/TL is at the level of 8.8850 of the opening of the interbank market today.
Analysts stated that the continuation of current risks in terms of investor pricing causes volatility to remain on the agenda, and said that the statements from the US Federal Reserve officials today, before the employment data to be announced in the USA on Friday, are important.
Analysts said that today the data agenda is calm in the domestic market, while abroad, ADP private sector employment in the USA, factory orders in Germany, retail sales in the Euro Zone will be monitored, technically, the BIST 100 index 1.390 and 1.370 levels as support and 1.420 points as resistance. reported to be prominent.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
09.00 Germany, August factory orders
12.00 Euro Zone, August retail sales
15.15 USA, September ADP private sector employment
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